Today is a full moon, and once again we see the market gain support during dire times. Volume is still pretty bad, but where are the sellers? They seem to have vanished, just like all the on-chain analysts have been predicting for a while now. It doesn't take long to turn it around when everyone realizes all the sellers are gone.
If this pattern continues, it gives us two weeks to forge a solid reversal. These two week time cycles give zero indication as to how much volatility we'll experience, just a general direction (up two weeks, down two weeks).
Double resistance at $45k.
IMO there's no way we don't bounce off this yellow resistance line at least once. Although I suppose shattering it would mark an ultra bullish occasion. #dreambig
At these levels traders love the unit bias levels at the $5k marks. Looks like we're about to test $35k shortly. Then onto $40k/$45k if possible.
This also marks a special occasion of finally being out of that damn wedge. It's been over two months of consolidation in there. All that's left is $30k ultra-support. Tested for the tenth time and still fully rejecting any kind of real pushback.
You'll also noticed how the market perfectly found support at $29k. Think about that for a second. The exact level you'd push it down to just to get the very last of the weak hands to sell the absolute bottom. Yeah, the market is rigged, but it's actually less rigged than most. Hard to lose in the long run when the damn thing keeps doubling in value every year.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
Fair market value for Bitcoin right now is $20k. We are still more than 50% higher than the exponential curve would indicate (currently 65%). If we do not definitely break lower than this the Q4 mega bubble is still fully on the table. Look at where Bitcoin is right now. Being bought by corporations and even governments after hashrate being artificially manipulated by Chinese laws. This April pre-market rally has got nothing on the end of the year if it mimics 2013 or 2017.
4 year cycle stronk
Maybe that's just hopium, but the fundamentals I'm seeing warrant another hype cycle for sure. Even though DEFI is full of scams, the value from DEFI is far greater than the ICOs of 2017. AMM is increasing liquidity by x1000. That liquidity is going to attract a huge amount of capital eventually and all at once, just like it always does. These things spiral out of control quite quickly if you recall. Most gains are made in the last 3 weeks of a mega-bubble. And then: POP!
But But But: bear market?
Again, a bear market is impossible. Bitcoin's fair market value is $20k, we could crash to that level and then we'd immediately be back in a bull market. We only have bear markets after mega-bubbles, and a mega-bubble never happened, we need the price of Bitcoin to go x10+ the curve first. That's $250k by end of year. That's my target.
This last run up took us to x3.2 the curve. That's a typical bull run, the likes of which we saw in summer 2019 most recently. Now we are x1.65 above it and everyone is worried about a multi-year bear market the likes of which Bitcoin has never seen (1 year max for Bitcoin)? Hm, seems extreme and fearful. I'm not buying it.
Conclusion
The emotional roller coaster that is the market continues. Watch as I just spout off random thoughts that contradict everything I said the day before. Who said any of this was rational?! Get that rational person out of there, it's time to ride the thrills and damn the chills!