You wanted a bearish prediction?
Ah, well, here it is.
I've been talking about how March is going to be a bad month for quite a while now. Nothing has changed. March terrible. Tax season is the worst. Q1 is never impressive.
Does that mean the market will do what it always does, which is the opposite of what I say? Hm, maybe. Then again, it's not like we're in the middle of some booming economy. This slow motion train wreck that started in 2020 still hasn't even crashed yet, let alone been repaired.
At the same time, a legacy bear market could catapult crypto adoption.
It's basically impossible for an overarching bear market to be good for crypto in the short term, but it's almost guaranteed that it would be amazing in the long term.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
Imagine a bear market begins, right now, today.
Bitcoin crashes down to $30k and everyone loses their minds. However, what happens after that? Traditional bear markets last like 18 months, but because Bitcoin is already very close to the doubling curve as it is, there's a good chance that while the stock market bleeds, Bitcoin slowly goes up month after month. What are day traders and investors going to do when everything bleeds, except Bitcoin? Probably gonna buy some Bitcoin and keep the momentum continuous.
Of course none of the alts have such a guarantee. I got burned pretty hard in 2018 thinking Bitcoin going up means everything else is going to go up as well. I have to assume that if the entire world economy was contracting... that even if Bitcoin was going up, part of the reason it's going up is because it's being propped up by alts and bleeding them dry while increasing dominance. We've seen it happen before, we'll see it happen again eventually.
Speaking of 2018.
Remember in May when everyone was talking about 2018 like the correction in May was the same thing? Now we experience a similar correction and people are at it again talking about 2018. What happened to May? No one talks about May. It never happened. These people have the memory of a goldfish.
In fact, it is silly to even talk about 2018, because 2018 only happened because we were deflating from a mega bubble. No one seems to care. They think that what happened in 2018 could happen again right now. Yeah... that's... not going to happen. People don't realize why the bear market of 2018 is nothing like the environment we are in today. All they know is the fear of number-go-down, and they reference the event that scares them the most, not realizing that we are only a 20% drop away from the doubling curve, while in 2018 we spent the entire year more than a 50% drop away from it until it finally crashed in November back to the logarithmic trendline.
Truly, we are in no kind of position to be worried about a "multi-year crypto winter". Those things only happen when the market is valued ten times higher than it's supposed to be. Even if we are scraping the rocks like we were between 2014 and 2016 during a 'brutal' stock-market, that would still put us at $100k two years from now. That's saying quite a bit considering the stock market could get absolutely decimated during that time. In the time that Bitcoin grinds up to $100k the stock market could be down 25% or more. No joke. What better marketing for crypto is there than that? Especially from an institutional point of view when it comes to long term holds and conserving value on the balance sheet over time.
Truth be told, we may not get another mega-bubble until this happens. The amount of money required for Bitcoin to x10 above the curve is astronomic at this point. The only way it's going to happen if institutions FOMO in knowing that they are going to hold for ten years so it doesn't matter if the splash they make is gigantic and creates a ton of volatility/uncertainly in the short term.
At the same time, I'm also firmly convinced that DEFI is on the verge of creating coins with elasticity that can expand and contract as needed while still storing all the value that Bitcoin stores. We are approaching a phase in money and technology where we no longer have to choose between store-of-value, unit-of-account, and medium-of-exchange. The world will change when the blueprint that allows all of these things to occur at once is in place. Sure, it will be copied a thousand times over. Doesn't matter. Once the toothpaste is squeezed out the bottle there's no putting it back in. Value is value. Money rules the world.
On the itinerary:
- pCUB launch imminent.
- Splinterlands signs deal with Warner Music Group.
- Ragnarok fungible token claim soon™.
- 3Speak token claim soon™.
- LEO engaged on expanding and marketing (+Tiktok stuff).
There's so much to look out for in the short term on the Hive ecosystem that I really need not look elsewhere. Even Rune will we connected to Hive via the wLEO pair soon™. At this point it's all becoming too much to keep up with. Exciting times.
Hive has also conveniently crashed down back to my buy range at 80 cents. I have 5k Hive unlocking tomorrow via powerdown. I'll probably cancel the powerdown after that unlocks and chill for a bit. I really want to buy more Hive but with all these other tokens launching that becomes extremely difficult.
How will I buy pCUB, EXP, SPK, SPS, RUNE, LEO, ... if not with Hive? I mean, if I'm being honest, Hive is my #1 and I hate selling it. Like, absolutely loathe selling Hive. At the same time I invested so heavily at 10-20 cents that it's hard to sell anything else at the moment. That's what happens when you put yourself on the backfoot and then happen to strike a lucky right-cross. It shouldn't of happened, but it did, so here we are.
Ideally LEO will be spiking x10 or something crazy here soon and I can rebalance from there. I think a lot of people are massively underestimating LEO. Its got a $2M market cap. Doesn't get much lower than that. I trust the founder, team, and the direction of the network. That's a very hard thing to find in crypto. It's priceless.
At the end of the day all of the volatility trading I do in crypto is an attempt to become a Hive whale. It's been extremely valuable having access to four totally uncorrelated assets in this regard (BTC/Hive/LEO/CUB). When one goes up, trade out to the others, and vice versa. Real question is what I will do when I actually reach that goal. Probably just stack even more Hive because I can't turn it off. Such is crypto.
Conclusion
I'm still bullish for the next week and bearish in March (especially early March). Does that means we're about to bottom out over the next week and then forge a recovery in March? Wouldn't surprise me. I'm getting good at calling it exactly wrong these days.
Either way, I'm looking forward to having these months behind us. The only good predictions I've ever made are based on the doubling curve and the 18-month cycle between bull markets. Until then I'll be grinding it out until summer 2022 and hope for the best.