The market is not performing as well as hoped.
After a 19% dip and 5 days of downward action, thin-skinned crypto-twitter is once again whining about a multi-year bear market. I take this as a good sign. It means the market won't get caught off guard for further dips. A lot of longs have been liquidated and a lot of coins just bounced off a critical support one day after the full moon took place.
Hopefully we will be up for the next 2 weeks.
But honestly if we aren't trading above $70k by December 4th, I'm gonna be worried. More and more it looks like this 4-year cycle is not going to complete and the 18 month cycle is going to overrule it. This would put the actual peak in Summer 2022.
The problem with a peak in Summer 2022 is that the economy is so fucked right now that it could collapse before then, deflating the crypto market before a mega-bubble even happens. This would be a blessing in disguise if I'm being honest. Deflated markets don't get popped. Should this happen crypto could reach a level of unparalleled stability for quite some time. This would be good for the entire space, but very boring for us DEGENS.
HIVE THOUGH!
Imagine if Bitcoin just traded between $50k-$70k for the next two years. That would actually probably be really good for the alts, especially for small caps like Hive who are still a 10x away from all time highs. A stable Bitcoin is traditionally very good for smaller caps that thrive on stability and capitalize on the boredom of a stable market. When Bitcoin gets stable traders move to the riskier assets, and only retreat from the riskier assets if Bitcoin starts going down and alts lose twice as much.
This community has grown and built so much since 2017, at this point I'm convinced that the fair market value of this token is around $5-$10. The only problem is that the market doesn't seem to realize this yet. Give it time. So many are building, and we have that 3Speak airdrop coming soon™ that's sure the generate quite a bit of hype. This is especially true because speculators aren't even going to need to power up to get the airdrop. Get ready for a bumpy ride when the time comes. Massive volatility.
MT GOX
Another development that has Bitcoiners running scared is the news about Mt. GOX hack victims finally getting their payout after 8 years of nothing. Many are worried that if these people get their Bitcoin back they will take the huge profits and sell. I'm not so sure, but it is a very valid concern. Personally I hope that the current dip we find ourselves in has already priced in the event and it will have little effect when it actually arrives.
This variable is likely the reason why coins like Ethereum, BNB, and even Doge have crashed less in the last 7 days on a percentage basis vs Bitcoin. Bears are trying to price in this event before it occurs, and I assume it's going to turn into an epic backfire at some point. I guess we'll see.
Hillary Clinton says cryptocurrency has the potential to destabilize nations and traditional currencies
LoL!
My how the tables have turned. First, it was just magic worthless internet money. Then, it was just for Drug Dealers. Further it was for terrorists. Now it's ruining the environment. Watch out: it's going to destroy entire nations! Hillary Clinton is obviously a shill. I assume everyone already knows this.
Need I remind everyone that the Titanic got sunk by an iceberg. The establishment would create propaganda that implies that crypto is the iceberg, when in reality crypto is the lifeboat that we need to jump into and hang on for dear life. While the establishment would have us sit on the deck of the Titanic while fruitlessly trying to bail out the ship with our time and labor, they are beginning the realize that this many people exiting the ship is going to make it sink faster.
But make no mistake, the Titanic will sink; there's literally nothing we can do about that. Crypto is here to stay, and can not be eliminated worldwide no matter how many Draconian measures are put into place. In fact, such a policy would only cause it to accelerate faster, especially in the places that haven't banned this superior technology.
Too real.
Just wait until crypto gets so rich that we buy out all the politicians.
That when shit gets truly real.
Conclusion
A 19% crash definitely counts as a dip, albeit a small one. Perhaps this is just pricing in the MT GOX FUD, perhaps there's more bleeding to come. Already, bearish analysis points to the idea that we are repeating the Wyckoff cycle of distribution that will mirror the crash he had in May.
This is why it's going to be alarming if BTC isn't trading above $70k by Dec 4th. We very well could complete the pattern and dip during the month that everyone assumed would automatically moon. Still, we still have two more weeks to wait and find out. Personally I still expect the market to rip upwards and break out to all time highs once again. The distribution happening now isn't nearly as volatile as the distribution we saw from Feb to April. Let's circle back in two weeks at the end of the month. End of November is notoriously bullish in this context. If that's not how it works out we'll need to refactor the strategy and rebalance positions to prepare for all directions.