Crypto Twitter is at it again.
It's just so fun to rip on people who should be used to these violent market swings by now but somehow have the same exact reaction to every dip no matter how small. That being said... the market does not look... great... that's for sure.
Seeing as we are inside the bullish 2-week cycle after a pretty brutal collapse, it's really not the best sign that we are trading under the ascending support line. Clearly, support at $39k is still intact (for now) but that very well might not be the case when the bearish cycle kicks in.
Even worse than a potential support line flipping resistance, we see that volume for Bitcoin is absolutely abysmal once again. Seriously though, I never used to see it get this low... even during boring nothing periods where nothing is happening. Sub-7k BTC/24h is such trash, and that's right were we are sitting right now.
But you know me...
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
A full deflation back to the doubling curve at $34k is something I'm perfectly comfortable with. In fact, I would celebrate such a move by going long for the first time in years. I could buy a full 1 BTC with $17k at that price by going x2 long. Sounds like an amazing deal honestly. We all know price can't go below $20k in even the most dire of circumstances. A liquidation at that level is so absurdly unlikely I'd be more than happy to take the gamble gamble.
Again, take a look at the doubling curve.
We are so close to it already. Even if we are scraping rock-bottom at the end of the year that's a BTC price of $51k. Crazy stuff considering only 2 years ago we were losing our minds at $4k during the COVID dump.
INFINITE GREED
x10 in two years and it's still just never enough.
MORE MORE MORE MOAR!
It's honestly insane when we look at how ridiculous people are.
Crypto Twitter is a great place to be to get front-row seats.
PTSD incoming?
Last May we crashed from all time highs at $60k+ to the $30k support in a matter of nine days. Remember that? It was INTENSE. People don't forget. You can see them right now already; freaking out and bracing for impact. But that's the thing about these markets isn't it? It rarely ever does what people think it will do. Vampire market gonna get in your head and suck you dry. This is why we HODL. Just ignore everything and tell yourself you have diamond hands; lalala I'm not listening. Before you know it your stack has gone 10x; I know from experience, mang.
My position is embarrassingly unbalanced.
I always advise people to DCA and maintain balanced positions so they can be ready for the market swings no matter what direction they go in. Have I personally employed this strategy... ever? NAH! ALL IN BABY! TADA MOON!
That being said I do feel kinda dumb in this moment when it would be so so easy to just take out $10k and realize some long-term gains just in case. For me, $10k could last me an entire year if I was really scrapping it hardcore, and it could very easily last me 6 months without even trying.
6-12 months is a long time
More than enough to outlast any potential bullshit coming down the pipe, but yet here I am all in just like all the other greed monsters looking to score. I swear one of these days I will learn my lesson, but not today it seems.
Conclusion
- The market looks extremely weak.
- The Bullish two-week cycle is ending soon.
- $39k seems to be barely hanging on.
- Crypto Twitter is losing their shit.
- The anniversary of our last flash-crash 'May' be triggering.
- HODL