What did I say last week?
- It's tax season crunch time.
- We had a bullish full moon and should expect a bearish new moon.
- April is always a sideways or up month.
- Keep your eye on the prize (late May and early/mid June)
It's crazy to see everyone freaking out over price action when this was the expected outcome in the short term. I was even madly bullish on Hive despite the incoming death-cross. Obvious moment to take some gains off the table if you're a day trader. Personally my day-trading days are done.
MA(100) goes under MA(200)
This death-cross obviously railed us pretty bad, but I'm not worried. 80-cents remains a really really strong support and we are only another 17% drop away from there.
Personally I think this is just the precursor to a wicked summer bull run. We should get the confirmation bump we were looking for at the end of the month.
Bitcoin
It is a bit annoying that $45k support got crushed so quickly, but it looks like we might hold here at this weird middle ground at $42500. If true, that's still a much higher low than the lows we've seen in recent history.
This is definitely a nice place to make a higher low and push upward into a summer run, but honestly even $40k is pretty bullish. Anything lower then $40k is going to be a very WTF moment, but by then it will be too late to sell. We find ourselves in another holding pattern for sure.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
The price of Bitcoin is "guaranteed" to be higher than this price by September... and that's really saying something because September is a "bad month" for crypto.
My cycle chart did me pretty dirty in 2021.
Thanks to Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, and the entire nation of El Salvador. These things happen, and the chop in the crypto water was disturbed. I think 2022 is going to play out much more predictably. We probably won't get a good winter this time around because summer is looking hot hot hot. In fact if we get that summer bull run the end of the year is going to be TERRIBLE most likely. I think we will lose all our gains and fully return to the doubling curve by then (finally). It's about time.
Polycub
I've been meaning to write this for days, but Polycub is looking pretty good price-wise. We've fully bottomed at this 33 cent level multiple times, and I think we've entered and interesting accumulation period where the yields are still high but no one is really selling at this low price.
With less than $400k in the liquidity pools, it's very easy to dump the price, but it is also very easy for bulls to prop it up as well. It's a two way street. In light of these developments, I've stopped selling my airdrop and am just staking it in the xpolycub contract. Despite all the complaining I've done in regards to the project I am quite excited to use that stake to go long when the loan system rolls out. Should be fun.
It's also highly significant that taking the penalty is no longer worth it when farming. That means for 90 days... starting recently... there isn't going to be much (if any) selling of yield for three entire months.
Market cap is the best metric.
At a market cap of $1.5M, Polycub is obviously very low on the totem pole. I think it can go down farther but $1.5M is also super low. I'm not looking to buy at this level, but I'm also not looking to sell. Still looking to wait until the next halving event to see what happens.
Conclusion
Everything is fine. We are a week into the new moon bearish cycle. One week to go before the bearish period and tax crunch time are over. I expect that BTC will easily be trading above $45k by the end of the month. But again, that's not the focus. The real focus is where we are at during the end of May. I'll be holding away unti