Traditionally November is a pretty great month for crypto. This time around with the market in the position that it finds itself I expect no different. Four years ago November was a pretty stable month with Bitcoin trading between the $700-$730 range for the entire month. This leads me to believe November will either be a very stable month or a volatile one in an entirely upward direction.
2020 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
Considering we are trading well above the doubling curve these days (as predicted) we might be in for a very boring month where Bitcoin just sits here at the $13k-$14k range the entire time, allowing weak/strong hands to wash their coins back and forth without any real action. After all, most Q4 Bitcoin gains come in a single spurt and then the top blows off the volcano and we get a lot of up and down volatility for around a month. We would expect this kind of action in December, not November.
However, my personal prediction is targeting the $17k level for November. Sounds like a lot, but that's less than a 25% gain from where we are today. I also think that we could even hit all time highs this month, which I believe would trigger a moderate 15% dip back to the $17k level... although I'm not really expecting that.
I'm much more expecting a pretty stable month of trading without a lot of dips: thus the No-Dip-November title. Even though Bitcoin has made a ton of gains over the last seven months we still find ourselves in a position of high support despite all the uncertainty going on in the world. (Perhaps even because if it).
I think a lot of people are going to wait for this whole POTUS election thing to blow over. We might see a big movement somewhere between Nov 3rd and Nov 7th as the results come trickling in. Again, I don't think the election is going to have a big affect on the market, but it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy for a while until more information becomes available. The market loves to speculate on random info.
The funny thing about the POTUS election is there are a lot of people on both sides of that equation. There is a lot of bullishness on either side, so I think there's a very high chance of the entire event being a complete wash. The market just doesn't realize it yet.
When alts moon?
I think the answer to this question is pretty obvious. The entire mindset of this market is going to change when BTC hits ATHs again. Bitcoin at $20k will spark a huge alt-coin run up. In fact, Bitcoin could dip from $20k to $17k while everything else is spiking.
Monthly candlestick.
It would have been nice if Bitcoin had closed above $13800 last night. Even $13900 or $14000 would have been pretty significant to a lot of technical analysts looking at the monthly candlesticks. A $14k closing is an all-time-high closing, so such an event will be viewed as extremely bullish.
Once Bitcoin breaks this resistance at $14k the sky is the limit. There is very little trading data to work from and the entire market will be flying blind and engaging in price discovery all the way up to $20k and perhaps beyond. I'm not going to be surprised if we spike all the way up to $30k over the next couple months.
Facebook banning #bitcoin tag
Facebook is at it again banning the #bitcoin hashtag under the guise of "protecting their users". When are these guys gonna get with the program? Seriously though. If they has just started incorporating Bitcoin directly into Facebook already instead of going full greed with that Libra failure, they'd of already made bank by now. Very silly. Doesn't matter, Bitcoin will flip all the corporations sooner or later. Until then we have more time to accumulate while the market is still cheap.
Worst case scenario
Unlike back in March with the unprecedented COVID dump and subsequent amazing recovery, the market really can't be taken off guard during this time. A lot of people are expecting the worst already, while back in March everyone was in extreme disbelief. When everyone is already bracing for impact, losses should be extremely mitigated. I think at worst we can crash back down to the doubling curve at $12k. There should be really strong support there with a lot of unfilled buy orders due to the spike on Oct 20th.
Conclusion
Yeah, it's all speculation, but speculation is fun. I'm expecting a stable month for the most part until we get to the end. Hoping for some of that Black Friday money-flow to come flooding in during the last week. As always, I expect December will be quite a crazy month. Hopefully I'll stop writing these speculative fluff posts until then. Cya next month.