I see a lot of people talking about the need to wait till the next halving event before we get another bull market. This might be true, but if so it's correct for the wrong reasons. The halving event is highly irrelevant at this point.
Miners no longer control the price.
Used to be that miners unilaterally controlled the price (this is why many assume that they still do). If the price of energy went up, Bitcoin would crash. If the price of Bitcoin went down, more needed to be sold in order to pay the energy bills. We saw many death-spiral situations and fears that never actually happened in reality, but the theory still stands.
Halving:
- 50 BTC per block.
- 25 BTC per block.
- 12.5
- 6.25
Half
This is prix fixe
Well what's one point?
The reduction from 6.25 block reward to 3.125 is extremely meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but everywhere I look people are viewing this event (that happens in two years) as if it's the savoir of crypto. Wut? No. Miners aren't in control anymore.
The circulating supply of Bitcoin is 19.1M coins right now. Even if we printed all 21M today that would only be a 10% increase. It's been in that near-19M range for a long long time. Inflation is irrelevant, no matter what the maximalists are saying. Most recently, the inflation of Bitcoin has dipped lower than that of the fiat targets. People make a big deal out of this... why? The asset itself is going x2 every year. A few points of inflation is totally meaningless compared to that.
First year after the next halving.
Alright, lets game theory it out just for fun. Halving in May 2024. Reduction from 6.25 to 3.125 block reward. How many coins does that save in the first year from being minted?
- 6 blocks per hour
- 144 blocks per day
- 52,560 blocks per year.
- 164,250 less BTC will be printed from May 2024-2025.
LOL... who cares?
Less than 200k coins? So completely irrelevant. Look at how controls the market now. The institutions are in control; the big money. We really think $3 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in 2025 is going to make a difference? Please. Such asinine desperate logic (omg number go up please). It's a drop in the bucket. $3B saved is a nothing number.
Halving is a bearish event.
And this is another thing that everyone forgets. The halving is BAD. 100% of all BTC inflation is allocated to security. This is what makes it a store of security. Cutting that in half all at once on the same day creates extreme instability for no reason. We really think it's a good idea to cut the money allocated to SECURITY by half on some random day and hope for the best (even celebrate it)? That's such greedy monkey logic.
Bitcoin is never more vulnerable that it is during a halving event. This should be obvious to everyone with half a brain cell. You take away half of the money being allocated to security... then your security is going to be half as effective... on a pre-determined day that everyone knows about in advance. Does that really sound like a smart play? But again, the greedy apes celebrate it like it's the best thing ever. Mindblowing really.
Conclusion
Yeah, we might have to wait another 2 years before a bull market. That has absolutely nothing to do with a halving event and everything to do with the recession we find ourselves in. Coming to conclusions like: "the halving is going to save us" is such dangerous logic. What if the timelines coincidentally add up? Then the assumption carries on to the next halving after that in 2028, where it definitely isn't going to matter at all. Bad data leads to bad conclusions.
Inflation rate doesn't matter. Inflation itself (and the proper allocation of it) is the killer dapp. The fact that Bitcoin has very little inflation doesn't make it superior, it makes it secure and boring with very little risk over long periods of time. It also makes the price extremely volatile and unstable due to having zero elasticity.
Those are put their hopes into the halving event like it's the ultimate bullish thing are going to be hugely disappointed. If not in 2024, then definitely 2028 guaranteed. These aren't the developments that matter. We need to keep developing real solutions, not create volatile supply shocks that are completely unhelpful to an economy that craves stability and dependability.