This is the idea that the period between the end of April and the running of the St Leger Stakes - a famous horse race run on a weekend in the middle of September each year - is a dead zone for the stock market during which returns fall away. Better to miss out on it altogether, or so the saying goes.
Are we headed into six months of boring crab?
One thing is absolutely certain: September is pretty much always a disappointing month for Bitcoin. Last September we could have easily bought in at $27k (I went long). In 2022 price was $19k in September. This, in retrospect, would have been an incredible entry point. However, in the moment it would have been horrifying because FTX was just about to collapse.
September in 2021 was $40k; an easy entry point to swing trade Q4 as is almost always the case. In 2020 it was $11k, again right before the end of year rally to $40k and then $60k in Q1. There's a pattern here. September is always a good month to buy, and we are only four months away.
So the only real question left is if we are going to break all time highs in June/July or if we it's going to be a massive disappointment. All the history says we need to brace for impact after hitting all time highs early and being overblown. However, the history might not matter because we are in a completely new environment.
These massive ETFs don't make money by getting trading volume from the degenerates; they make their money by convincing their clients to hold for long periods of time. That's quite a significant change in business model. Blackrock wants you to hold their shitcoin derivative that represents Bitcoin stored on Coinbase. It's a totally new business model with HODL philosophy at the very foundation.
The chart looks extremely weak.
The two biggest moving averages are the 25-day moving average (cyan) and the 100-day moving average (green). We are currently consolidating right underneath the MA(100)... which is honestly pretty terrible. We're going to be locking in a very unavoidable death-cross very soon if the market doesn't recover quickly. Luckily I believe that $58k still has immensely strong support and that support range extends all the way down to $50k, with the $50k-$53k being bottom-of-the-barrel rock bottom in a climate like this.
So it just goes without saying that if we are trading around $50k come September I'm going to be all in and then some. Don't forget that a crash to $50k is still only a 32% dip from the top, which is a totally normal retracement within an obvious bull market.
Alt Market?
Traditionally Bitcoin starts losing dominance after the halving event and starts underperforming against most of the other tried and true assets (new tokens need not apply). Essentially buying Bitcoin in September is not going to be an option for me. It's going to be a huge alt rotation. I can only hope that Thorchain has increased their lending caps by then so I can borrow against my Bitcoin and buy other assets like Hive and Rune.
Bitcoin is still volatile.
Even though the market might look weak and headed in a downward direction this is actually quite a bullish pattern. It's completely counterintuitive but it's true. Going slowly up over time is a sign of weakness and step-ladders can lose all their gains in a single elevator trip downward. Going slowly down over time is a sign of strength for BTC. Ascending triangles/channels are bearish while descending wedges are bullish. All they need to do is breakout and they usually shoot in the exact opposite direction.
The ultimate sign of weakness is volatility dropping off a cliff and Bitcoin flatlining. It feels like a support but it almost never is (September is the exception). Support can only be tested so many times before the ice cracks and we fall into icy waters. Luckily none of the truly bearish signals have popped up on the chart so I must continue assuming that $50k is absolute rock-bottom and the chance that we even get there is not very great. Anyone trying to catch a dip lower than that is being extremely greedy in this climate. Of course if the goal is just to buy late September no matter what: the price predictions we come up with now are quite irrelevant.
How's Hive doing?
Meh, Hive's had some volatility which has been interesting. I see a lot of people making a big deal out of it but... it's not a big deal. This is shortsighted thirst within a desert; a mirage. Look at the market cap. Look at our rank. We are still trading under rank 350. Embarrassing really. But also an incredible opportunity for zealots who believe the skies will clear.
The problem with Hive (or huge benefit if you bet on it) is that we have a tendency to lag. Then after we are done lagging we spike to the moon. Then after we spike to the moon we have a slow and painful bleed back down to previous levels. A lot of this has to do with our lack of liquidity which is honestly collectively everyone's fault if you think about it. People want what they want when they want it. Market makers are rare. Market takers are the standard. We need some deep AMM pools that can incentivize the average users to become makers. Deep liquidity between Hive and our HBD debt is the key, but I digress.
Conclusion
We need to be saving up some dry powder to buy into the end of September. It is known. Local peaks often materialize in June or July, but if these months end up being terrible performers due to recent all time highs August will be the month to sell. We'll see how it goes and I'll keep my finger on the pulse of the situation. Either way the price is all but guaranteed to be better at the end of the year than it is come September. Hopefully it's a free win as is often the case.