Been calling these moves pretty well thus far
- Back in Jan and Feb I warned of the "liquidity void" ($77k-$85k)
- We traded in the void for around 2 months.
- April 21st at $88k I wrote: gas up the rocket it's moon time.
- Number has been going up ever since.
- And before all that I identified the significance of $58k before everyone else.
All around a pretty good record.
The market still looks great and summer still looks like a rally, but in the immediate short term we have a problem: the dreaded triple pump.
Whenever I see three pumps like this I brace for impact and expect a dip. My recent analysis concluded that a move up to around $104k would have been the best-case-scenario, and that best case scenario has happened. Now we can still dip to $100k or even $95k while still being in immensely bullish territory. Basically no matter what the price does right now it's bullish, and that's a weird spot to be in.
MA(25)
The 25 daily moving average is skyrocketing up after double-golden-crossing the 100 and 200 lines. Any dip to this line will probably be worth a bullish bet, currently sitting at $93.5k but ascending quickly, it will be at the $95k trendline in a day or two, making that level a double support. If it gets to $100k we'll have a double support there as well.
https://x.com/Sykodelic_/status/1921227433035837629
Potential breakdown of bitcoin.dominance
Alts may be gearing up for a massive run as well. The false breakout has returned to the wedge, and that wedge is so narrow at this point that a breakdown is guaranteed sooner or later. The next few weeks are an obvious time for this to happen as we trudge forward into what keeps confirming itself as an epic summertime rally.
Money where my mouth is
I have two longs open on both Hive and Rune, and this is pretty rare as I almost exclusively trade BTC only these days because it's much easier than all this other stuff out there. However, the x3 long on Rune was very easy to justify at $1.26 because the TCY launch went so smoothly. Price of TCY spiked all the way up to 50 cents (making ETH collateral whole for a brief moment). Price has been mostly floating around 25-30 cents, which is quite good and to be expected considering the bad debt that this token currently represents.
Surprisingly enough the LEODEX integration of TCY was a step above everyone else. They hit the ground running and were the only option available right when the token launched. LEODEX got a lot of props that day.
https://x.com/crypt0m0nkey1/status/1919510917299028238
https://x.com/Orion_9R/status/1919516425053405626
https://x.com/AaluxxMyth/status/1919502348424032353
https://x.com/AaluxxMyth/status/1919496381657411877
https://x.com/AaluxxMyth/status/1919843986573074438
For frame of reference
Aaluxx is the Maya dev that literally invented this solution to Thorchain's bad debt, so getting a shoutout from him is a pretty big deal. I personally waited until now to claim my TCY because I wanted to wait a couple days for the dust to settle. But I asked Grok some troubleshooting questions and it was literally also directly referencing Khal on X in regard to the inquiries. You know you're on the cutting edge front lines when AI is quoting you.
https://x.com/i/grok/share/vDeWsdrnR7EBl9wJl7NRUOMjF
Hive looking super solid
Thus far the decision to go long at 24 cents has not disappointed in the least. Currently we appear to be battling the MA(100) line but the chart looks so bottomed out we can get past it without any resistance whatsoever. Also notice that the MA(200) just appeared on MEXC (because the perps market has only existed for 235 days)... and surprisingly this line is not only flat but also even slanted up a little. So even though we've been trading below the MA(200) for what feels like forever we've still traded above it even more... which is something I would not have guessed.
In any case the first golden cross for Hive has locked in and the big one (25/100) should be coming in a week or two. Again I don't like to speculate on Hive because Bitcoin is so much easier to predict, but it's fun to try because Hive is a very large bag of mine.
I'm resisting the urge to close my longs and take all those gains but this bet is more of a longer term move. I expect to get burned in the short term but I have no confidence that I can actually trade it better than just hodling at this point. I'll keep those longs open for at least 3 weeks and maybe even well into the summer (June/July). Gonna have to play it by ear and wait for new information to figure out my moves.
Conclusion
Every time I do analysis the charts keep looking more and more bullish. Yes, we got that triple pump and are due for a confirmation of support, but that hardly matters in the grand scheme of things. The real action happens at the end of this month and hopefully into June/July. Sit back and relax; it's gonna be an easy summer.
