In 2019 the market was crashing around this time after the top blew off the volcano. How many more times will I cry wolf before it actually happens and no one believes it? Not even I know.
So we find ourselves catching another bid to the upside rather than crashing to $28k in the short term. What does it all mean? It means that history doesn't repeat. Sometimes it rhymes.
Let's not forget how all this started:
corporate-sharks-try-to-bait-bears-into-trap
Right before this 30% retracement happened I declared that a bear-trap was being set. Of course my conclusion was that bears wouldn't fall for it and we would probably just keep pushing higher. I was obviously wrong.
In fact I am right about volatility but wrong about the direction of said volatility with such amazing precision that all one has to do is bet against me every time and they'll make a ton of money. This has become a long-running joke now on Leofinance and even Twitter at this point. "Just keep making predictions so I can bet against you, friend."
Will do!
So as soon as the market became unstable I freaked out on January 2nd, declaring the end of the bull run. Then again after we doubled dumped on Jan 10th, I freaked out again and declared the bears in charge, immediately after claiming they were being baited.
Flip flop flip flop flip flop.
The unifying theme of these freakouts is simple scarcity mindset. You think I'd be doing all this if I was a millionaire sitting pretty no matter how low the waves crash? Absolutely not. It's this middle ground of possibly being able to escape debt/wage slavery but just not quite there yet that's incredibly unnerving.
Fake it till you make it.
Easier said than done. You want to live in abundance then you need to live in abundance. Ironically, all billionaires live in scarcity, as whatever they attain clearly isn't enough and they push ever harder for more and more no matter what they have, to the detriment of society itself. Living in abundance is way way harder than it sounds, as it applies to many many other aspects besides just money and power.
Co-dependence & addiction
Toxic relationships can also be fostered through scarcity. For example, the classic cases of rampant spousal abuse all around the country are a result of scarcity mindset. Extremely toxic co-dependent enablers can link together and forge an unhealthy dynamic for all parties concerned, but this is allowed to continue because the unknown is feared or it is simply too difficult to break away from these mental addictions. Women will far too often support the men who abuse them, to a fault. These classic social dynamics that make little sense from the outside looking in: continue to repeat themselves over and over. Which is obviously both fascinating and terrifying at the same time.
--- End of SJW rant
Tilting
So where is the market going? Are the bulls in charge or the bears? Who knows... All I do know is that massive volatility is still obviously on the horizon no matter how one slices it.
I'd obviously take some gains around $50k if we made it that high due to obvious unit bias barriers, but really if we intend to gamble on this market we should be looking for the best bets possible.
What is the best bet?
Dollar cost averaging slowly over time at pre-determined price points while waiting for this market to run out of steam. When will it run out of steam? When volatility and volume drop off a cliff. This could take a while, so perhaps I can take this next week off, employ some restraint, and stop constantly flipping out about the market.
AH, who am I kidding?! If I don't make predictions people couldn't bet against me and win win win! I won't let you down, FAM!