SEED Holdings Report #25 - Loan juggling, Polycub games & more!

Time for an update! This week the Polycub launch has eclipsed all the other things around the Hive ecosystem developments and obviously, It wouldn't be the same for me without playing the launch (yes, with seed funding).

The situation with Russia/Ukraine is keeping the crypto markets in an awkward spot. But over the long term I believe it doesn't matter. Trends are trends and I see BTC and ETH far ahead from the 'unstoppable' point.

A little recap of what I'll be talking about today:

DAO Maker keeping up in terms of price. Presales paused temporarily. Staking rewards coming in & big unlock of 4000$ coming in ~10 days.
Took a loan denominated in ORN with seed funds to play the polycub launch, ORN pumped the day after, got scared, decided to return the loan, and bought it up with personal funds. Wp empo. U suck.
Polycub overview & opinion (Spoiler, I'm not bullish).
New SEED icon! Do you like it? Smash the like! credits to Hive account@queengaga for the dope work.

And this is how we're standing at the time of writing:

DAO Maker Status

We haven't participated in a single presale in the last 15 days. They're all on hold basically. I kinda understand it though. Launching a Defi/NFT/Gaming product at current market conditions can be a bit like shooting yourself on the toe. Understandable that everyone wants a 'number go up' event at launch.

No biggie, we have a decent unlock of 4K$ in less than 10 days (one that was postponed 1 month) and our DAO keeps giving staking rewards while seems that's fairly stable in price lately. Accumulation or further distribution before another leg down? We'll see.

Polycub Games

Ahh jeez... past week I had one of those ''F*CK ME DAMN'' moments. You know the feeling when you sell and the price insta pumps +40% the next day? Yeah, one of those. That's how things went:

Seeing that we barely had 2500$ available in BUSD, decided to take a little loan of 5000$ denominated in ORN at around 3,2$ (1550 ORN approx.) The loan was taken from one of the multiple portfolios which I'm privately managing, being this one from my sister. Thought, ''meh, I can farm the first week of polycub and return the ORN easily after, if this sh*t doesn't break up, obviously''.

What happens then?
Yeah, exactly.

The price breaks up and pumps +40% the day after.

empocry def.png

Considered several options, clearly didn't want to 'allow' the debt to stay here and assume the risk of ORN starting to move up (it was my invalidation point). But also didn't want to pull out funds and private myself to play the Polycub launch with seed funds.
Finally decided to 'buy out the loan' and I returned the ORN from my own funds (6000$ at the time). In exchange, I took the only liquid asset available from seed-treasury (matching amounts): the HBD-SEED position. The exact amount of SEED & HBD remains stacked in the diesel pool, but now I'm the owner of that liquidity.

TL;DR

A loan taken in the worst time possible forced me to purchase the seed-treasury liquidity in order to be able to keep farming on safe terms.

Sum of initial investment into Polycub: 8250$

Assuming that I started out with 8250$ (3250$ bridged from BSC and 5000$ 'loaned');

I started farming into the pLEO-MATIC pool & selling all the rewards for btc/eth/stables (& pooling again).
I changed my plans and decided to sell all the LEO on 8 March (avg price of 0,22-0,25$), IMHO the LEO-MATIC pool doesn't have a fair multiplier Vs btc/eth/stables pools (Sorry for the dump!), Switched everything into BTC/ETH stables.
Until the day I keep on selling most of my acquired polycub. I'm still dubious about the point where I should start keeping half (to keep pooling it with WETH and/or USDC).

Current balances on Polycub: 13500$

I'm not keeping a very close record about the 'pure profits' since I'm managing multiple wallets and all that stuff, but I know that regarding SEED we're talking about +4000$ of pure profit which keeps compounding with the initial investment.

PolyCub Overview & Opinion

I have kept my mouth closed all this time (regarding my polycub operations) for a reason, since I didn't want others to compete with me in the early days of farming (at a point, I controlled 10-20% of the pLEO-MATIC pool). My intention & plan for polycub has always been to capitalize on the early days and we'll see after.

I've not kept a single Polycub since I 100% knew that 4$ was vastly overpriced. It's still to be seen how PoL & bonding performs, but I think we'll easily see polycub under 0,5$ (0,2-0,5$ is my target before ever CONSIDER buying) once emissions keep going down and people get bored (I believe people are overestimating the capacity of Polycub PoL to buyback & burn polycub). All of this, of course, nfa.

But yes, I guess I'm a Polycub Bear (I'm selling everything and I'll keep doing so).

Quick maths

Let's assume a TVL of 10M$ in kingdoms (x2 actual figures).
Let's also assume that the harvesting fee of 10% remains as it is and a farm APR of 5% in average.

That means that for 10M, the APR after 1 year is 500K$ out of this (assuming everything ramins static), polycub keeps the 10% or 50K$.

I don't know if this number is really really low (I assume it is), but let's multiply it by a factor of 5 and assume we're talking about 250K$ after 1 year (I'm still assuming 10M$ in TVL, remember).

How much time do we need for the PoL to grow into a considerable sum to make a noticeable dent into the whole polycub supply. Even at 1$ and 7M supply we're talking about years...

Dunno. Maybe I have misunderstood something? I would be delighted if someone could show me where I am wrong.