Today I was really looking forward to do this analysis because I wanted to see what $HIVE is doing. It was a busy week for me and had no time to follow $HIVE, but know it made a move, so let's see how things stand right now.
Today is the 11th day of the month, so we have 19 days till the candle close. So far we have a bullish candle with long upside and downside wick and a small body, which kinda suggests indecision, definitely no momentum yet, but we'll see when the monthly candle closes. So far the body of the candle is still inside the bullish gap that is holding price.
The weekly chart looks way better than last week. Last week I said:
Last week price had an attempt to invert that bearish gap, marked with yellow on the chart, but could not close above it. This week we saw price sweeping liquidity from $0.2929 level, which I mentioned in my last post, but could not close above $0.2584. That bl**dy gap is capping the market for 7 weeks now and keeping price hostage as well. This week's candle is not closed, there are 10 hours till the candle close, but by the look of it, we won't get the close that would indicate bullish continuation. source
And indeed, we didn't get the close we all needed as the candle closed inside the gap. This week we have a nice move to the upside and so far, even though the candle closes in about 10 hours, at the time of writing, it is above the gap and looks like a bullish engulfing candle.
So in order for everyone to understand, the current candle needs to close above $0.2584 (red line). In case that happens, it also confirms $0.3006 as swing high and that'll be the next liquidity pool to target.
In case of weakness (which I don't see at the moment), price could revisit the $0.1775 level, or lower, the swing lows marked on the chart, respectively $0.1639 and $0.1467. It's highly unlikely at this point, but you never know in this game. One Geo-political event can bring the whole market down, so better know what to expect and be prepared for.
I like what I see on the daily chart. Since last week price made quite some progress, in terms of $HIVE of course, which in plain English means price swept liquidity down till $0.2322 and created a swing low at $0.2289. Price bounced nicely from there and a bullish order block (OB) was created on Friday. That OB was retested today, price bounced off of it and holding above it so far.
We have two bullish gaps on the leg up, or the buy side. One, the highest has been retested and holding price.
For bullish continuation price needs to close above the bearish gap (yellow), in which case the next liquidity pool is at the swing high at $0.3006, after which I'm expecting price to invert (close above and hold) the other bearish gap above the current one.
I rarely say this, because $HIVE is a crazy asset, you really have to know how it moves and be ready for crazy, unexplained (if you don't know the insights) swings, but the h4 chart looks nice. The gap I marked with green is an inverted bullish gap and holding price nicely so far.
Today it's Sunday, so no volatility, no volume, no news to move the market, but for bullish continuation price needs to close above $0.2761 and hold. That would establish a bullish OB and in that case the next liquidity pool is at $0.3006. In case of weakness, the next level I'm looking at is $0.2307 and $0.2289, which can be considered equal lows. The truth is, the buy side of the curve, meaning the leg up from $0.2289 till where price is not, is very balanced, there's not much to stop price.
$BTC is looking good here, but approaching resistance. This week on Thursday, price set the bullish OB, after which price created a bullish gap that has not been retested yet. Neither has the OB, but that's further lower.
Next week is going to be interesting. In case of bullish continuation, the upside targets I see are: $104,986 EQH, $106,421, $107,118 and ultimately ATH at $109,951.
In case price shows weakness, we could see a retest and rebalance of the gap, a retest of the OB, or the swing low at $93,333.
Next week is going to be interesting. We have three red folder days with important data announcement, which is going to create volatility and give room to manipulation as well.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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