Welcome to another edition of my $HIVE & $BTC Technical Analysis. It's the 26th, there are 5 days left of the month, so let's see what these two assets have been doing this month.
Not much has changed on the monthly chart since last week. You can check my last analyses and you'll see $HIVE is trading $0.02 lower than last time, so what I wrote last week about the monthly chart is still valid today. I still don't like that long, ugly upside wick but it is what it is.
For those who don't know how to read or interpret candles, the wick is what price tried to do and the body is what price managed to achieve. In this case selling pressure was way higher and sellers managed to push back price. If you go back and look at the previous candles, this is not an isolated case, we have several similar candles, with huge upside wicks on the monthly chart.
To be more precise and tell you what we can expect, for bullish continuation, this month's candle needs to close above the nearest order block (OB) at $0.4335. Otherwise there's a chance price can revisit lower levels.
The weekly chart looks a bit different than last week and not in a good way, unfortunately. Price lost support and the daily OB at $0.4288 and is trading slightly below. There are still 9 hours to go till the weekly candle close, which means anything can happen, but it would be nice to see this candle close above the pink line, then get bullish continuation. Otherwise price could engage with the other OB below, at $0.3752, which would not be the end of the world, but I hope at least that level can hold. Price is pretty balanced, there are no gaps on the buy side, so I hope the wick that overlap the lower OB will be the last liquidity pool to sweep on the downside.
On the daily chart, things look a bit different. Since last week, price lost support, went below, came back above on Friday and at the time of writing it is below support again. Please note, the daily candle is not closed yet, there are still 7 hours to go, which means we don't know what's going to happen, it can close inside or above support as well, meaning candle close above $0.455.
If we put aside the grey support area, price is retesting a bullish gap that was created on Friday, which is a healthy move. As long as this gap (marked with green) can hold price, there's hope for bullish continuation.
Levels to watch on the upside are $0.455 and $0.4961 and 0.3768 on the downside.
On the h4 chart, price is about to lose the bullish gap marked with green. Losing means closing below, in which case that gap becomes resistance. The last candle is a doji, that means a candle with no body, which indicates indecision in the market. Actually the last 3 candles are small bodied candles or doji, so after such a price action, we can expect big bodied candles, we just don't know in which direction, but let's see what are the options in this case.
One scenario, the most favorable would be for price to revers here and close above the gap and stay above $0.4465, after which the next liquidity pool would be at $0.4961. If this gap is really lost, there's another one right below, between $0.3939 and $0.4056, which is meant to defend price. This is an important level, because the pink line at $0.4048 is support and price should stay above it.
If you go back to the origin of this support line, you can see it started on Saturday, the 4th of January and since then price tried to stay above it, then it became resistance as price came back and went below it between the 21th and 23th January. I don't mind a quick wick down to the bullish gap below, then close above the pink support level. If this level is lost, the next possible level to be swept would be at $0.3768.
As far as $BTC is concerned, on the daily chart, I still like to keep my inside bar pattern going as I consider it valid, even though we have a new one formed, but that bears less significance for me.
At the moment I can see indecision in the market. The last two candles are doji, which is not an unusual thing as it's the weekend, traditional markets are closed, not many are trading and there was no major event to move price.
At the time of writing price is slightly above the mother bar high and if it closes above it (in 7 hours), the next level to be swept on the upside is at $107,118, then ATH. If not, the bullish gap below can be retested again. This is an important level as the gap has been rebalanced and tested so many times and has managed to defend price so far.
Next week we have four red folder days, with important data coming out, which means high volatility and manipulation as well. Monday is a day off in this regard, so maybe we will not see big movements, but after that you can expect some real roller coaster rides again.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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