Today I'm on time with my post, not like last week. I'm trying to respect the schedule as I consider essential to know where we are now, on Sunday and know what to look for next week, so let's get started, shall we?
We had an apparent green week, but the monthly candle is still bearish and price is below the monthly open so far. It's mid-month, so let's wait to see what the end of the month brings on this time frame. Till then, previous analysis is still valid.
On the weekly time frame, the green the week offered is more visible. The weekly candle did not close, we still need almost 14 hours for the candle to close, but so far, the body of the candle is bullish.
If the current candle closes above $0.0611, then we have this level as the current swing low. In order for price to turn bullish, price needs to invert the two bearish gaps and close above $0.106. For such a move, time is needed as it's not going to happen today, I can guarantee you that, but if it happens, the highs I'd keep an eye on are marked on the chart, which are $0.113 and $0.1214 after that.
On the daily time frame, we have a bit more colorful price action. Last week price set a new swing low and a new swing high after that. This week we had a new swing low set again, a higher low, which is good. At the time of writing, price is struggling to set a bullish OB, which would happen if price would close above $0.0768, but as would, should, could has no place in technical analysis, we focus on facts and data.
Today's candle is bearish at the time of writing, but there's no cause for concern yet as having a bearish candle after four bullish candle is normal.
Levels to watch on the upside is the one I have just mentioned and the swing low on the downside at $0.067, if there's more weakness in the market.
Last week I posted the above h4 chart in a comment in reply to rwaguru, highlighting the two scenarios I was looking forward to.
This is where we are now. Price bounced at the 0.75 level, which was my immediate scenario. Since then, price got above mid-range and turned it into support. At the time or writing, it looks like price wants to retest the mid-level, but I'll remove the (now) unnecessary elements from the chart, to see what we can expect next week.
As you can see on the chart above, price has just rebalanced the bearish gap (marked with yellow), but could not close above it and got rejected. At the time of writing, it looks like price is heading towards the low at $0.0747, that is going to be swept soon. That level is close to mid-range and the OB at $0.0727. This level has to hold and we have to get a bounce there, if we want bullish continuation. If not, the swing low at $0.0703 could be next.
In case we get a bounce around here, then price needs to close above the gap, and sweep the swing high at $0.0766.
$BTC also set a new low this week, a higher low, which is good if you're bullish. This level in crucial to hold. The two levels to watch right now are $72,254 on the upside, if bullish momentum is ongoing. If the momentum is lost and we get weakness, then I'd keep an eye on $65,065.
ETH/BTC is still consolidating, nothing much has changed, so previous week's analysis is still valid.
Next week we have 3 days of news, all red folder. FOMC minutes on Wednesday is in the evening, so let's hope it's not going to affect the NY am trading session, but caution is recommended anyway.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
Come trade with me on Bybit.
If you're a newbie, you may want to check out these guides:
- Communities Explained - Newbie Guide
- Cross Posting And Reposting Explained, Using PeakD
- Hive Is Not For Me
- How To Pump Your Reputation Fast - Newbie Guide
- Tips And Tricks & Useful Hive Tools For Newbies
- More Useful Tools On Hive - Newbie Guide
- Community List And Why It Is Important To Post In The Right Community
- Witnesses And Proposals Explained - Newbie Guide
- To Stake, Or Not To Stake - Newbie Guide
- Tags And Tagging - Newbie Guide
- Newbie Expectations And Reality
- About Dust Vote And Hive Reward Pool, by libertycrypto27
