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Well its been a while since I have taken any operation, 8 days since my last post @ftrekt/bitcoin-about-to-fk-dreams-h5m , still I think this is reasonable to operate the market and at the same time have enough peace of mind to have a nice sleep for the most part, been every day on the market from what I have seen is not necessarily healthy for most people, there are those who were born for the dopamine rush but most wont be able to handle it, I know I would not and this is the main reason I have decided to start this journey to just paper trade for 100 operations and then evaluate if I’m actually ready to trade.
On my last post I was in the camp of a “NO TRADING ZONE”, for me, why do I say for me? well I don’t have the experience yet and in the event of doubt I prefer to learn from the experience rather than loose while learning, the time for loosing money will come once I start trading futures with real money because I wont win them all, but in the meantime I have made two purchase on spot, small $100 purchase.
Bitcoin 1D (9/21/2024)
This was my chart from the 21st of Sept and the on the 23rd I mention this
Bitcoin Daily Chart starting to have all this weak ass wicks up and down, for the past day selling out every time hits $63500 ish, probably showing that the actual overall market don't think the price could get over the previous recent high of $65,475 and this has been the trend since March 2024, the exception here could be that instead of making a new low the price drops a gear around $60k at the worst case $58k to then start pushing and for the first time do something different in 2024.
I doubt anyone hits the exact price dollar by dollar, my expectations were that BTC would drop before hitting $65475 and it went a bit over $1k more, $66508, basically to liquidate anyone who was short and then its business as usual, at least for now until its not, my expectations of $58k is worst case scenario although $60k is more reasonable, I’m not in favor for BTC to go to $0 but I’m in favor of two things, not losing money and learn how the market moves.
Bitcoin 1D (9/30/2024)
Market speculation refers to the act of conducting financial transactions with substantial risk of losing value but also the expectation of significant gains, typically based on anticipated price fluctuations rather than the fundamental value of the asset
Part of my speculation has become true with Bitcoin moving over its previous recent short term high and then dropping off, is this a big drop? not really, not for Bitcoin, now what?. Well for me its a matter of waiting a bit more for the move to be completed since I would like to buy a bit more of Bitcoin in spot because I do think that this “drop” is probably the last time or one of the last opportunity the market will give before going up, as I mention on my other posts I doubt we will ever see another $49k BTC this year and from here on is up only, BTC on the 1D will probably do a higher low to break out this month.
The drop was confirm two days ago, that’s when the SZQ turn red and it was a matter of time before the red candle, meaning yesterday, show up. As I was expecting based on the indicators strategy plus speculation, was I 100% sure of this? NO, I’m guessing? I think this time I didn’t because I stick to the strategy and wait. Now its a matter of waiting for the SQZ to finish developing the its negative slope (red area), wait for the price reaction (speculation) and the ADX to take a positive direction once the SQZ negative slope to finish and start its positive slope (green) on a 1D chart might be around 10 ish of Oct. If everything plays out the entry is between $62k – $60k depending on how the price react in the upcoming days, we are not there yet and also have to wait how the price gets there.
Bitcoin 4Hr (21st – 28 Sept)
Where there trade opportunities during that range? yes there were, but to be honest my fear was to either get stop out by volatility or been just too close to the top, in fact we were very close since only the perfect entry during that range would give me a 6%, basically more risk than opportunity to win a trade, this is just my take on the risk vs reward, I would prefer do a 6% at 5x at a lower price like I have taken before and way far from the recent top.
Bitcoin 4Hr (9/30/2024)
Men do I have a long way to go if this is only my trade #6 out of 100. I have open an operation at $62,300 on the 4hr chart, believing on the next 48 hours Bitcoin is going to reach that point trying to liquidate those $62k ish, this my not be the exact price where the candle stops but I think with a positive direction on the ADX, meaning the drop still has some force and the SQZ negative slope very well develop there is a chance I could take this trade and take a 3% at 5x long, stop at $60k, this way I think my risk is lower, will the market get to pick my order? I don't know but I hope I’m awake to watch if it does or not.
I hope I'm right on this one and that I'm starting to learn this strategy, all that time I'm not on a trade is part of the learning experience since I also watch the price and try to have enough patience to wait for the proper time, not even the right time or the best entry but wait for things to start develop in the way I expect them. If I cant achieve this then I would be just guessing and that's exactly what I don't want to do.