Many noticed that Bitcoin has never in its existence made an all-time high before its halving. Well, that pattern is broken. It not only did it this time, it did it twice... so far. And we are not talking about two consecutive days where every day is a new ATH, we are talking about an ATH, followed by a flash crash of 10k which probably scared the hell out of the newcomers, and then a V-shape recovery to a new ATH at 70k.
You can see all of them in the screenshot below from TradingView:
Even more, while both the previous ATH and the following flash crash happened during weekdays with the buying pressure from bitcoin ETFs going on, this new ATH happened last night when Wall Street firms were off for the weekend.
Many expected (and I still do) that the bull market would have two waves, with the major one coming a good while after the halving event, after the market cools down a bit from the pre-halving pump.
But we are already in new territory with the pre-halving ATHs, and if the market keeps going up, I wonder: is it possible to have only one major wave this time around and maybe for the bull market to end (much) quicker than anticipated?
To be honest, I don't believe in this scenario. We are heading into a supply shock for Bitcoin, and the halving event will only amplify it, at least psychologically, because in reality the majority of Bitcoin has already been mined.
So, what should we expect? A mega-wave after the pre-halving one? When I say mega-wave, I refer to its amplitude, not to its time extension, which I expect to be similar if not slightly shorter than previous ones. Maybe...
But what if investors got a little carried away in the first wave, and we'll have a higher than usual first wave and a "normal" second wave, but still higher than the first one...
Hmm, if we get to 100k pre-halving like I've been reading and an according effect on alts (I don't think we will, but I don't exclude the possibility), I wonder how would that affect our plans for this bull market.
That would be an unexpectedly high price so early. I think I would take more profits than initially planned, but also at least partially re-enter the market if we have a cool-down period of a few months after the halving with at least a 30% fall from the highs, expecting the second wave.
What's your thinking about potential scenarios?