I'm not sure how many of you remember how were things around Hive - and more specifically Leofinance - about one and a half years ago, close to the beginning of 2021.
There was obviously optimism because the bull market was in full swing. And consider the Splinterlands explosive growth hadn't happened already then.
I remember some people were making plans for what they'll do when or before the market turns bear. I was one of them.
From the price levels that many predicted around those days (BTC at 250k, ETH at 5k, HIVE at 1 USD, and LEO at 5 USD), how many became reality?
Let's see... Only HIVE. And it was more like 3.5x that at the height of the pump. It was actually quite stable at around $1 for a while. Well done HIVE!
If those would be the prices where we had planned to take profit, 1/4 of goals reached would be a bad achievement rate.
But FOMO and excitement make you believe the improbable is going to happen. And you lose, most times.
That continues to be one of my weaknesses. Not taking enough profit out before the market turns.
Even after it turned, remember how long it took since November 2021 before people admitted we were in a bear market and not in a bull market? Mainly because this time there wasn't any blow-off top like before.
In the bear market, people have been making asset accumulation plans which are already in action or waiting for certain levels they had set.
I remember the 10-15 cents range for HIVE has been brought up quite often at the beginning of the year. It's just my opinion, but I don't think we'll see those levels again. Not in this bear market anyway, which likely means, never? I think it is very improbable that HIVE will drop below $0.25, but more likely 30 cents is the lowest we might see. Unless the hard fork will be a complete mess, which I doubt.
But am I counting on HIVE hitting 30 cents? Nope. That's why I started buying from 40 cents. I don't want to be caught off-guard like I was by the return of the bear market without fireworks.
I think the same way about bitcoin. Whoever is expecting it at 10-12k might be very disappointed. I'm not saying it can't happen. Personally, I don't believe it will. Maybe not even 14k.
That's what I want to say by the title. Prepare for the unexpected. That your plans get invalidated by the market action. And don't get greedy. Expecting to buy very cheap is a form of greed too. You might end up buying at higher prices in a haste or not buying at all if the market doesn't go where you expect it to go.
That makes sense both when you accumulate in the bear market and when you take profit in the bull market. Many people solve the problem of predicting market moves by removing themselves from the equation and using Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). You can either buy or sell a fixed amount regularly or certain amounts at set price levels. They are both forms of DCAing.
None of this is financial advice, of course. You just take the decisions which best fit your situation.