This post may disappoint you because there is no single method, model, or chart that will help you predict the top of the cycle, there is also no advice on what price range you should sell crypto and take profit. But there will be a map to help you know exactly where you can make decisions!
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What signs do we rely on to take profits?
Currently, there are many models, methods, and software to predict the peak price of Bitcoin in particular and the market in general. But you should remember that just as expected, and no one can know exactly where, only when passing through the bear market, and looking back, we identified what was at the top of the market. And the important thing is that every technical analysis, fundamental analysis, every pattern you refer to is only for the sole purpose of letting you make a decision. The decision to buy, sell or hold really affects your profits, not the patterns. To be able to make the most accurate decision you can only rely on yourself, not outside factors, the market will only give you signs that the top price zone may appear and the decision to sell or not is up to you.
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The most important thing is that you have to write down your financial goal, what are you going to do with the profit you get from the market? Will you buy your dream house, dream car, buy things you find meaningful to you, or pay off a certain debt … You have to know exactly why you're investing in crypto, and what you're going to do with it once you get it, which is a lot more important than sitting there and waiting for your profits to grow every day & do nothing. Because of your bottomless greed, you just want more and faster, but don't really know what that more money is used for? And boom… the market crashed and you kept sitting there and waiting, waiting for it to bounce back again and slowly as the market fell and went into bear season.
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You must know very clearly, specific financial targets of themselves. Because if then the market gives you an opportunity then that is the best time for you to take profits and realize the financial goals you want. Currently there are many different models and charts that predict where the peak is, but which model do you believe in? Difficult right? The most accurate type of chart, checklist, and number that people look at to take profits is the personal financial goal table. We invest in crypto to make money, what does that money help us do and does it help us live the life we want to live. Let's lock in each part of the profit and mark complete in the financial goal boxes that we intend. If we do not have an anchor to anchor ourselves, greed will carry us far away, follow the fast current and when we realize we have reached the end of the stream a great waterfall falls down destroying all the boats in the water.
What is your reason for investing in crypto?
Don't care and compare this person who takes more profit than you, diamond hand than you. Because each person has different circumstances, goals, and amounts of capital, someone bought BTC at 5k and now they're x10, the mentality is very different from someone who bought BTC at 40k and just made a small profit.😆
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My friends, also quite a few people participate in the Crypto market, but most of them lose money. A few of them built their dream home. This can be a classic example, of course we don't know the back story of the few who built their home, and that's why they entered the crypto market. When the market gives him the opportunity to do it, then he doesn't sell and realizes his goal.😆
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Maybe many of you will think, why not hold longer to get 2, 5 or 10 houses? But if the market crashes and goes into a bear market, you don't have a home. Once you've accomplished your goal, where the market goes will only add to your excitement because you already got what you wanted when you entered the market. And of course, no one can know where the bottom is and when the top is, so we have a method of dividing buy into each period and subdivide and sell according to market growth to get a good buy price and the selling price is high enough for us to fulfill our financial goals. You have a few years to buy but a very short time to sell, so without prior practice plus a well-defined target number in your head, it is very difficult for you to make a definitive decision to press the button ”SELL" 😂😅😅
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The truth in investing that few people tell you is emotion. It's hard to control emotions, but it's true. We study many charts like NUPL, Stock-to-Flow, Bitcoin Rainbow, Willy Woo Chart, PTKT… and then what?
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After you rely on those charts to determine the peak price area, do you dare to press the Sell button to make a profit and get out of the market? When we sell we need buyers, when there are most abundant buyers, it is on the way up, not the price collapses and we panic sell to people who want to sell. It sounds simple in theory, that's why people love technical analysis and spend a lot of time looking at it and then not making any decisions about selling, buying, or holding. When we buy and sell with real money, it is closely associated with a very strong emotion, which is what makes us take the wrong and most difficult to control actions. Imagine you take profit in the uptrend, today you sell $1000 profit but tomorrow can increase to $1200 $1500 for example. It's a very difficult thing to do because you have to fight your own greedy emotions, which make you procrastinate and wait and wait without really knowing how long you're waiting.
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Without enough practice and a clear profit target, it is very difficult for you to fight that emotion. And to avoid the situation when you have sold all of your crypto but the price continues to rise, you can keep a portion of your portfolio so you don't get mad at yourself.😂😅😅
Skills agreement with emotions when making decisions many times more valuable than the analytical skills chart.
Technical analysts can say entry and exit points without telling you what the accompanying emotions are, you have to ask, do they really trade with real money?
To reduce the pain of making a decision, you can split and sell multiple times during the uptrend, and have to practice like that many times so that your mental feelings can withstand the pressure of locking in more money when the market is strong. This is also true when buying. Not a theory where you did accidentally buy BTC price falls below 60k and 50k hours then understand their painful emotions say how, Logically everyone knows BTC is correcting a few % and will recover in the near future but that is not a pleasant feeling right, especially with large and important money to you.
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Don't think I have to buy exactly the bottom and sell the exact top to get the highest profit. But really, if you do, it's just luck and won't work consistently for long. And with a large portfolio, and for newbies and this is your first Bull run season, to catch of the market's running price is also too good. For example, you buy BTC at 50k and the top of the market is 200k, the price line is 150k (if you buy exactly 50k and sell at the top of 200k, you make a profit of 150k). If you catch ⅓ of the running price line of 50k profit, you've done too well.
You need to practice from now on
Trading with emotional resistance is never easy, it is true both when you buy when the price falls and sell when the price is up.
If you don't practice enough and often enough, your mind is still not used to making decisive decisions when needed, leading to hesitation and losing many opportunities to achieve your desired financial goals.
If you are a long-term HODLers and you have only bought and sold in the past few years and have very little experience of selling and taking profits in a short time, then this is when you can practice. Depending on the size of your portfolio you can practice every week, maybe sell $10 $100 $1000 per week to practice psychology and decision making. It is not the amount of money you take profit, with a small amount of money, if the market increases many times, it will not affect your portfolio but it is an opportunity for you to practice. Because when the market goes up fast and gives you an opportunity to complete your personal financial goal but if you don't practice and prepare in advance you will never hit the SELL button and take the profits out of the market.
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Believe me, acting against your emotional instincts is never easy and only practice will make you capable of doing so.
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