What to Do When You Guess Incorrectly
This is not financial advice. These are just my opinions at this time, which may be disproven.
I feel that I am bad at investing. I know there are many people who feel this way about themselves. So, what is going on behind the scenes when I am being "bad" at investing and how can I correct it?
The answer might be book length! However, I can answer part of it.
I recently decided that Bitcoin and Avalanche were at a local high and sold them. I did this with all my crypto in September. Worst timing!
The decision comes partly from greed -- I think I can sell, take a small profit for once, and purchase again when the market dips. Then, the market proceeds to go up and up and up without me.
How to Correct for Such an Error
Well, what can you do? Here is what:
- Don't make the error in the first place next time.
- Wait. Wait. Wait.
How to avoid the error:
First of all, I need to know about myself that my instincts are off. When I feel this urge to sell clearly seems to demarcate a market point that I "feel" safe. The market is only beginning to go up.
One way to avoid the error is to always HODL unless I have a serious reason not to. Another is that if I really feel like selling a crypto asset, I could sell just half of it. Then, if it goes up, I win, but not as much as I would have, but, similarly, if it goes down, I lose, but not as badly as I would have.
Update: 
Once you mess up, wait!
I am sorely tempted to re-enter the market, but I still think it will dip eventually, even if it is not soon. When it dips near the point that I sold (which is not crazy to imagine), that is when to buy back in.
That is one thing I think I did right last September after the error of selling most of my crypto. I didn't buy back in (except for coins that seemed like good projects and well priced) until the market tumbled back down.
The waiting game is hard as others are making money off their HODL'd savings, but I just consider it a reminder to stay in the market next time!
Conclusion
Is it better just to HODL compared to trying to time the market and be clever? It depends how clever you are. I have now proven to myself that I am insufficiently wily for such maneuvering to work in my favour.
For people like me, I think only investing what you can truly afford to lose is important (but what can we "afford" to lose?) Secondly, for me, it is not possible to time the market, so investment strategies such as DCA (dollar cost averaging) and HODL help. When I DCA (which means buying the same amount on a regular basis), the only modification I make is that, if it is an up day when most crypto is doing well, I try to wait a few days before investing. I don't know whether that is wise, but crypto has quite regular ups and downs, so it seems logical. Please correct my logic if you think I am mistaken.
Much love,
Harlow
(P.S. Help the Ukraine with Hivebuzz's NFTs for peace if you can. zirochka has published two articles showing how these funds are already being used to help people in need.)
Reminders:
- Tomorrow is PUD.
- Today is your last chance to claim your LARYNX airdrop for March (see my previous post for details).
- April starts tomorrow and it is HiveBloPoMo (did I get that right?) This is a challenge by
and
. The goal is to write a post per day in April, and I am going to try! Fingers crossed (as though it were a matter of luck?)
"Too many people simply give up too easily. You have to keep the desire to forge ahead, and you have to be able to take the bruises of unsuccess. Success is just one long street fight.″
Milton Berle, Comedian
Photo Credit Man Drops Sword... Oops
Photo Credit Ukrainian Flag - Peace in Ukraine with a free Ukraine soon I hope