The anticipation of Bitcoin ETFs is the strongest factor that drives the trend in the crypto ecosystem. The year has begun with green candles for the chart of Bitcoin and altcoins were able to find a place for themselves in the midst of the growing hype.
The investors buy the rumor that Bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the SEC, because Blackrock has been rejected only once in the entire history of it, and the approvals are going to open a door for institutions to buy big bags of crypto with millions of dollars.
The process sounds perfectly fine if you are a Bitcoin holder, however, the reality might not be as flawless as the market gets hyped. The risk of rejection is still a possible thing as there are still some " undiscovered / relatively unclear " aspects of projected ETF operations.
Temporary Rejection May Happen
If the SEC is not satisfied with the files, then the rejection might be inevitable.
As you know very well, the ETFs have to be very clear, well - organized and applicable to pass the examination of the SEC. However, when it comes to crypto ecosystem, lots of things are still not stress - tested and open to vulnerabilities that may come from real world to crypto or within the ecosystem.
Satisfying the SEC on crypto - related concerns might be one of the most challenging things to do while the perspective of the chair of the SEC is pretty negative against the crypto ecosystem.
Grayscale filed its latest amended spot Bitcoin ETF application with the SEC but left out details of authorized participants permitted to create and redeem shares.
The application by Grayscale, unfortunately, does not have " enough " level of transparency for the SEC to accept it as planned. As long as every single step is made clear and regulation friendly, the rejection by the SEC can be pretty likely.
Rejection to Compulsary Acceptance
First application phase rejection -> The applicants will object to the decision
The objection will be finalized by the second or third quarter of the year.
The objections might be seen valid and the SEC will approve the ETFs within 2024. In the end, Blackrock keeps its approval score high, the markets dive into a short - term bearish atmosphere. Besides, within the bearish trend, the ETF applicants may start to grow their crypto bags while it is cheap 😉
The ETF issuers need to grow their Bitcoin bag from very cheap prices to be able to manage the investments of people, then the temporary deep needs to occur soon.
In the case that the first attempt gets rejected but the second attempt, after a lawsuit, gets approved, it may end up with a huge win - win for both ETF issuers and the SEC to have a mild contol on the market. The opportunity to dollar cost average Bitcoin and get more visibility meanwhile sounds like a possible ideas as it is discussed on Crypto Twitter.
The news on the TV and internet is still pretty positive about both Bitcoin ETFs and the interest rate cuts by the FED in March. However, both of these expectations may not happen as they are forecasted.
What do you think about the risk of BTC ETFs get rejected by the SEC?
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