Things are not going perfectly well on the side of the crypto president, Donald Trump. The discussions he got involved in with Elon Musk caused him to lose some support from his side. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) did not want the government to spend further, although printing money might be one of the few options available to cover the expenses.
Losing the support of Elon Musk cannot be replaced by Donald Trump, as Elon decided to take an active role in the election period, incurring significant risks as a businessperson. The popularity of Elon Musk was one of the strongest sides of this duo in controlling the markets, especially crypto, verbally adjusting the risk appetite in all others.
Since January, Trump has gained more critics, and he cannot compensate for the losses until the midterm election in 2026. One way or another, he has to bring something up that will help him to secure his current power until the midterm election.
The first half of 2025 was a great time to take risks and play big. However, starting from the second half, there will be less tolerance for his attitude or outlier ideas.
The tariff war has to be concluded before one of the sides get hit severely.
The money China prints cannot accelerate the economy, whereas the risk of recession threatens the whole economy in the U.S. Trump is running out of narratives to make people follow the path he points. The trade deals with China can be the one that save both him and the global economy.
Trump failed to end the war in the world, people accepted this fact. However, there is no room for a second failure, which may cause people to lose money in government bonds, stocks, or other risky markets like crypto.
I expect trade talks to continue and be concluded logically. The second half of the year will be over this month, by the end of June, the markets may become more condident and greener.
What do you think about the ongoing trade talks and recent political issues?
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