We've Made It Through a Lot
A few months ago when the second round of layoffs happened amidst a series of land delays, many people were sure that was it for the company. For me, I was thrilled. Not because people got laid off, but because I felt the change in management was needed. Aggy was the wrong CEO at this stage in the company's existence. He was out of touch and gambling the company on a series of unfulfilled promises and pre-sales that all hinged on a bull market happening that had been alluding him for over a year. Each new promise put the company in more debt and caused more players and investors to leave. I think the company was a few months from going under.
@Yabapmatt, on the other hand, gets it. He understands more promises and presales won't get us there. He understands that MOAR isn't better. He's redirected the company and game and economy and it's showing.
Coping
When Matt took over, prices were already WAY down. We'd just gone through a series of disappointments over land. We'd seen multiple whales liquidate already in the few months prior. Big names in the community were selling at any price. Every time you thought cards were a deal, buyers were made to look like idiots within a few weeks. The second round of layoffs caused another exodus. Popular content creators were saying anyone who thought anything good was happening in Splinterlands were just coping.
Then Rebellion was announced and even as cards were so low it didn't seem like they could go lower, they got another 40% haircut. Those who were still into the game sold everything they could to raise money for Rebellion. My collection (which was once $300k) quickly dropped from $35k down to $22k while SPS dropped to an all time low of 1.3 cents.
A month ago half the community was sure we were going to go under and we probably were about to under Aggy.
Fast forward to today. Just a month later. The Rebellion presale basically sold out. The DAO has been supercharged by Matt's ingenuity and has $10 million in assets!! and an employee. SPS is up 160% since November 8th back to one year highs. Cards have rallied back almost back to where they were before the layoffs. Rebellion released today (and old card prices are holding 🤯), and let's not forget that LAND 1.5 actually dropped after three years of delays under Aggy.
When I got excited after the layoffs, it was not coping. It was because excitement was warranted. And when card prices dropped to fire sale prices, I increased my holdings substantially by putting in another $2500.
Fire Sale Prices
When I say fire sale, I mean it. Here's just a few examples. And I didn't even cherry pick these. I just grabbed screenshots randomly.
Bought the GF Serpent of Elds for $3. There's none even on the market right now but the cheapest water gold foil rare untamed card on the market right now is $13.
Bought maxed River for $13. Cheapest one on the market right now is $29.
Bought for .61 cents. Cheapest legendary card right now is $1 and these are $1.10
Bought these Maxed GF Riftwings for$9. Cheapest you can max a copy of this now is $24
Bought these beta gold foils for $3. Cheapest beta GF now are $6 and this card is $8.50
Alpha epics for $4.5 anyone? Not anymore. Now $10.60 for the cheapest one
Or what about this gem for $39? Not likely anymore. After someone just bought 4 for $60 each, there's one left on the market for $139
And I could keep going for a while. This was all in the last month.
Finally, New Money
But its not about the deals I got. Its about the fact that the deals didn't last. And they didn't last at a time when money was being directed toward land and Rebellion. For the first time in over a year, new money is flooding into the economy.
Rebellion dropped today. What we saw as recently as 1 month ago is when people need money for something in the game, they sell something else no matter how cheap it is. But we're seeing old cards come roaring back just after 1.1 billion DEC got dropped onto land and 500k plus Rebellion cards sold, and SPS rocketed 160% higher. This is new money flooding in like crazy.
What should have happened today if the last year was any indication was that when players saw the new cards, they'd run straight to the market and sell everything into this recent card rally to buy those rebellion cards. It didn't happen.
Welcome to the new bull market.
So What Happens From Here?
Who knows but I can tell you what I'm excited about. More old cards need to be burned or bought. We are far from out of the woods there. As it stands now, it looks like the card burning event is going to happen in early 2024. If Matt nails that, it could take out more cards than I'd initially thought and energize the community even further.
But what's really exciting is the possibility that with SPS shooting up, rewards in modern bronze and silver start looking really juicy. With BTC hitting $44k today and web 3 gaming heating up, its a great time for new players to buy a few hundred packs, load up on a few cheap Chaos Legion cards and jump into the game. Throw in a new player experience, maybe some Soul Keep, Land 2.0 hype, and potentially some craziness with some of these DEC liquidity pools, and we actually could see an explosion higher again.
Will it happen? Who knows. But this is the first time its seemed feasible in a long time and I'm here for it.