Wow what a level to analyze the course of cryptocurrencies is somewhat impressive but you are forgetting the human factor and the unpredictability of the economic environment you never know.
A new war, a sudden collapse of an economic area leading to a lot of panic or a massive hack and my favorite a court system attack on some enter or director related to cryptocurrencies that shakes the market.
I still think your projection has a high probability as long as something unforeseen doesn't happen.
Good analysis 👍