Longhash showed that Bitcoin's "end-2020" predictions were more accurate than those in which cryptocurrency influencers stated the asset's price would be in early 2020. The new study was based on media reports that included predictions of 17 prominent figures from the cryptocurrency economy.
These people specifically predicted prices in early 2020, and the company compared their predictions to the actual Bitcoin price of $28,841 as of December 31, 2020.
It says the closest predictions to “really correct” came from Alexander Zaydelson, CEO of Beam, and Danny Scott, CEO of CoinCorner. Both executives' forecasts came close to 5% of the actual price of bitcoin.
At the time, Zaydelson based his assessment on "basic logic" and the historical boundaries of ATH and ATL, saying:
I think it's possible that at some point in 2020 bitcoin could hit an all-time low or even drop a little lower, so I would say the minimum could be $3,000.
As events unfold and popularity grows, the demand for bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general will grow, and it is quite possible that it will reach all-time highs or even more. So I would say $30,000.
On the other hand, Danny Scott was confident in the long-term growth of BTC, but considered it an "impossible task" to predict short-term prices. His projections ranged from $12,000 to $28,000.
Other than that, the other predictions were also close enough to the exact price, which Longhash said would be challenging given Bitcoin's fluctuations. However, a Longhash study found that BTC forecasts for the end of 2019 or "in 2020" were almost entirely false, and "most of them were too optimistic."
Longhash believed the predictions were better this time around because people improved their guesses by better understanding the price of bitcoin. However, he pointed out that the company could have just “picked the best predictions,” or the Bitcoin faction could have done the right thing with most people, which is generally optimistic when it comes to price predictions.
$1,000,000 Forecast John McAfee topped Longhash's list of forecasts.
In terms of forecasts for the current year, the company said that cryptocurrencies are still "high." This includes Citibank, which recently expected BTC to surpass $300K by the end of this year.