Dow Jones Industrial Average
Price Movement: Closed at 41,200, up 0.3% for the week. Technical Analysis: The Dow has been forming a decades-long ascending triangle since the 1987 low (1,738), with the current breakout above 41,000 (a psychological resistance since 2024) signaling continuation. W.D. Gann’s time cycle analysis suggests 2025 aligns with a 38-year cycle from 1987, indicating significant upward potential. The daily chart shows a MACD crossover and RSI (64), supporting bullish momentum. The 50-day MA (40,800) acts as support. Backdrop: President Trump’s trade policies, including tariff resolutions, bolster market confidence. Long-Term Projection: Based on the ascending triangle, the Dow could target 48,000–50,000 by 2027, assuming the pattern completes its measured move.
S&P 500
Price Movement: Closed at 5,450, up 0.2%. Technical Analysis: A multi-decade cup-and-handle pattern has been forming since the 2000 high (1,552), with the handle resolving upward since the 2022 low (3,577). The breakout above 5,400 confirms bullish continuation, supported by Gann’s 90-month cycle from the 2009 bottom. Volume expansion and RSI (66) indicate strength, with the 20-day MA (5,380) as support. Backdrop: Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation fuel corporate earnings. Long-Term Projection: The pattern suggests a target of 6,500–7,000 by 2028.
GSCI Commodities Index
Price Movement: Closed at 543.56, flat for the week. Technical Analysis: A 20-year symmetrical triangle is forming, with the upper trendline near 550. Gann’s seasonal cycles highlight mid-2025 as a pivot for commodities. A golden cross (50-day MA over 200-day MA) and Stochastic (78) support a breakout. Support lies at 530. Backdrop: Trump’s domestic production push stabilizes supply. Long-Term Projection: A breakout could drive the index to 700–750 by 2030.
M1 and M2 Money Supply
Data: M2 growth (estimated) continues upward since Q4 2024. Technical Analysis: M2’s year-over-year growth chart shows a multi-decade rounding bottom since the 2008 low, aligning with Gann’s 15-year cycle for liquidity expansion. No direct price chart, but the trend supports risk assets. Backdrop: Trump’s deregulation encourages lending, boosting liquidity. Long-Term Projection: Sustained M2 growth could fuel asset prices, targeting 5–7% annualized growth by 2030.
COMEX Gold
Price Movement: Closed at $3,340/oz, up 0.5%. Technical Analysis: A 20-year cup-and-handle pattern is forming, with the cup base at $1,000 (2008–2011) and the handle since 2020. The breakout above $3,300 aligns with Gann’s 180-month cycle from 2011. RSI (62) and the 200-day MA ($3,280) support further gains. Backdrop: Safe-haven demand persists, tempered by Trump’s diplomatic successes. Long-Term Projection: The pattern projects $4,500–5,000 by 2032.
COMEX Silver
Price Movement: Closed at $37.50/oz, up 1.2%. Technical Analysis: A decades-long double-bottom pattern (2008–2020, ~$15) resolved upward, with the current breakout above $37 confirming strength. Gann’s 45-year cycle from the 1980 high ($50) suggests a major top in 2025–2026. RSI (67) and 50-day MA ($36.80) support upside. Backdrop: Industrial demand and Trump’s infrastructure plans drive prices. Long-Term Projection: Silver could reach $50–60 by 2030.
Gold/Silver Ratio
Price Movement: Closed at 89:1, down from 90:1. Technical Analysis: A 30-year descending triangle is forming, with support at 88 and resistance at 92. Gann’s angle analysis (1x1 line) suggests a break below 88, favoring silver. RSI (45) supports this shift. Backdrop: Silver’s industrial demand outpaces gold due to Trump’s manufacturing focus. Long-Term Projection: The ratio may drop to 70:1 by 2030.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y)
Price Movement: Closed at 4.40%, down from 4.42%. Technical Analysis: A 40-year rising channel (since 1981’s 15.84% peak) continues, with the current range near the lower trendline (4.20%). Gann’s time cycles point to 2025 as a pivot year. RSI (58) and 50-day MA (4.35%) suggest stability. Backdrop: Trump’s fiscal spending keeps yields elevated. Long-Term Projection: Yields could reach 5.5–6% by 2030.
CME Soybeans
Price Movement: Closed at 1,050 cents/bushel, up 0.8%. Technical Analysis: A 15-year bullish pennant is forming since the 2012 high (1,799 cents). The breakout above 1,040 aligns with Gann’s seasonal cycle for grains. The 20-day MA (1,030) holds as support. Backdrop: Trump’s trade deals boost export demand. Long-Term Projection: Soybeans could hit 1,500–1,800 by 2032.
CME Corn
Price Movement: Closed at 430 cents/bushel, up 0.6%. Technical Analysis: A 20-year bullish wedge (since 2006’s 200-cent low) is resolving, with the 50-day MA (420) as support. Gann’s 180-month cycle suggests a 2025–2026 peak. MACD shows bullish divergence. Backdrop: Biofuel demand and Trump’s energy policies support prices. Long-Term Projection: Corn may reach 600–700 cents by 2030.
NYMEX Natural Gas Futures
Price Movement: Closed at $2.90/MMBtu, up 1.0%. Technical Analysis: A 25-year head-and-shoulders bottom (1999–2024) broke above $2.85, with Gann’s time cycles indicating a 2025 pivot. RSI (65) and 200-day MA ($2.85) support gains. Backdrop: Trump’s deregulation boosts production, balancing seasonal demand. Long-Term Projection: Prices could hit $4.50–5.00 by 2030.
Bitcoin
Price Movement: Closed at $103,250, up 1.5% for the week. Technical Analysis: A 12-year logarithmic ascending triangle is forming since Bitcoin’s 2013 low ($100). The breakout above $100,000 in May 2025 aligns with Gann’s 144-month cycle from 2013. RSI (68) and the 50-day MA ($98,500) indicate strong momentum. A bullish MACD crossover supports further upside. Backdrop: Trump’s pro-crypto policies, including potential regulatory clarity, have fueled adoption and investor confidence. Long-Term Projection: The pattern suggests $150,000–$200,000 by 2030, with interim resistance at $120,000.
Market Outlook (June 16-20, 2025)
Bullish technical setups dominate, with long-term patterns (cup-and-handle, ascending triangles) signaling multi-year upside across equities, commodities, and Bitcoin. The Dow and S&P 500 may test 41,500 and 5,600, respectively. Gold and silver are poised for gains, with silver potentially outperforming (ratio dropping to 86:1). Soybeans, corn, and natural gas should see continued strength, while Bitcoin may test $110,000. The US10Y yield may edge toward 4.50%. Gann’s cycles and Trump’s pro-growth policies underpin this optimism.
This does not constitute investment advice. The opinions are those of the author. Do your own research.