What if the Stock to Flow Model was actually conservative?
When you see a price prediction of anywhere from $100k to $288k within the next 14 months you probably think man it sounds pretty outlandish.
But what if even those projections could actually be conservative?
The stock to flow model has been extremely accurate to date.
Meaning since bitcoin was created, it's price trajectory has very much following right along with its stock to flow model.
The base case for the model shows a price of anywhere between $100k and $288k by the end of 2021.
Technically it shows it before the next halving, but based on history we know that the price peaks during this current cycle and then has a bear market bottoming out before the next halving.
That means the peak would have to happen by the end of next year.
(Source:
)https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1326227321838301184
- 100trillionUSD
But that base case model didn't forecast the pandemic and it's subsequent spending.
The FED and EU Central bank are both at new records in terms of balance sheet holdings and those numbers are most certainly going to climb.
When you combine the expanding balance sheets with stimulus spending and you quickly get a scenario that could prove to dwarf those $100k-$288k BTC price projections.
The model above takes into account the expanded central bank balance sheets and gives you a new trajectory factoring in those inputs.
That model quickly points to $1 million per bitcoin much sooner than most anticipated.
I don't think it will play out like that but I do think that $100k prediction is all buy a certainty at this point.
I didn't believe that to be the case a year ago at this time.
Goodbye dollar and hello bitcoin.