BTC saw negative returns for the first two months following it's halving in 2016
Some are already worried that the BTC halving has come and gone and BTC isn't mooning already.
They shouldn't be.
Bitcoin's prior halving occurred on July 9th, 2016 and bitcoin saw negative returns for both the month of July and the month of August to the tune of about 8% and 9% respectively.
However, after that, BTC went another 6 months before finally seeing another negative month.
Check it out:
(Source:
)https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1276460005798096896/photo/1
- 100trillionUSD
Nothing to worry about...
This time around, our halving took place on May 11th, 2020 and we are very likely going to see a negative month in June. It's also possible we could see another negative month in July, though not entirely likely.
However, once we get passed these first couple months, we are very likely to see very positive price action.
If you look at the graph above you can see that the following 6 month's returns were all in the 5% to 30% range back in 2016. Nothing major, but steadily increasing never the less.
If we repeat anything close to that this time around you are going to want to be buying the current weakness in BTC.
For those calling for a big dip in BTC...
The thing I find really interesting in looking at the above chart is the lack of large down moves.
Everyone talks about bitcoin falling 80% plus during its bear markets, but look on the graph and see how many times bitcoin has dropped roughly 30% (or more) in a single month...
I have a hint for you, it's not a lot.
It looks like since 2016, there have only be 3 months where bitcoin has dropped close to 30% (or more) in a single month.
However, on the flip side, bitcoin has gone up roughly 30% (or more) on 12 separate occasions...
For those doing the math that is a 4:1 ratio for months yielding 30% vs. months declining by 30%.
Given that context, it starts to look less and less likely we are going to see any massive monthly decline, though not unlikely we could see a much smaller decline.
For those calling for numbers like $3k during this next pullback, it's not looking likely based on the above data.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc