Bitcoin has performed poorly in Q4 the last two years in a row, but this year will be different
If you go back and look at the returns of the previous Q4's, you will see that bitcoin has struggled in the 4th quarter lately.
In each of the last two years, bitcoin saw negative 43% and negative 14% returns respectively in 2018 and 2019.
Those can be seen here:
(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-traders-expect-boring-bitcoin-and-altcoin-price-action-until-2021)
As you can see, bitcoin seems to have a checkered past in Q4.
However, that is all going to change this year!
But this time it's different!
On first glance it seems like Q4 is historically weak for bitcoin, but that is only because you are not taking things in context.
You see, this year is a halving year, and that makes all the difference in the world.
If you go back and look at the last halving year, you will see that it was in 2016.
If we look at the 4th quarter of 2016, we can see that bitcoin had decidedly positive returns.
Something that seemed to buck the trend.
In my opinion the halving patterns are much more important than any seasonal patterns, which means we can basically throw out all the data that isn't Q4 of a halving year.
Based on the chart above, we only have one of those to go off of and it was decidedly positive.
But wait, there's more...
My argument for why bitcoin is going to perform well this time around is strictly based upon how it performed during Q4 of its last halving year.
However, there is a lot more going on that just that right now...
We are on the verge of another massive round of stimulus both in the US and globally.
The coronavirus is not going away and the previous stimulus is all but used up at this point.
The next round of stimulus will likely be the catalyst that ignites the next leg of the current bitcoin bull market.
If it doesn't happen prior to the election, it will be shortly afterwards.
So, we have historical trends on our side as well as a great macro trend via all the money printing.
Add that up and Q4 should be a lot of fun this time around!
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc