History doesn't always repeat exactly, but it sure does often rhyme!
With the halving now firmly in the rear-view mirror and the next bull market seemingly being underway, how high COULD this next bull market phase go exactly?
While none of us has a crystal ball, it sometimes helps to look to the past to get ideas of what to expect in the future.
In this instance lets look at the past post halving bull market rallies and compare them to where we are now to get an idea of what may or may not happen.
Sound fun?
Ok, here goes..
If we use a "1" to represent our halvings, we can use that as a starting point for previous and present post halving bull market rallies in bitcoin.
A chart of that looks like this:
(Source:
)https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1290654494062186498/photo/1
- ChartsBtc
As you can see this makes it very easy to see how the present rally would perform if it repeated the performance of the past post halving bull market rallies.
What should we expect exactly?
Like I said above, there is no guarantees that it plays out in the exact same fashion (or even in a similar fashion) but if it somehow did, here's the prices this next rally would get to...
- 1st post halving rally: ~$800k
- 2nd post halving rally: ~$250k
The current price is ~$11,200.
As you can see, if this next rally does anything close to the previous rallies, we are going to see the price of bitcoin go up anywhere from 25x to 75x.
Personally I don't think it will, as you will notice the second rally had smaller returns than the first, I think this 3rd rally will have smaller returns than the second.
And that makes sense to me as bitcoin gains adoption and more people know about it, plus the law of large numbers starts to play a role, the returns will go down in percentage terms.
If we saw a similar drop in returns this time around as we saw from the 1st post halving rally to the 2nd post halving rally, we would see returns somewhere around 10x from the current price.
It's not 25x, but still not too shabby!
And who knows, maybe it repeats what it did the last time and blows my predictions out of the water. :)
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc