If past patterns play out we could see HIVE go on a massive run in the next couple months...

While I don't think the altcoins cycles will play out quite as exact as the bitcoin cycles do, they certainly could.

For that reason it makes sense to look at the past and at least get an idea of what we might see with HIVE if the past were to remotely rhyme this time around...

Lets dive in!

The bitcoin halving back in 2016 took place in July of 2016.

The price of STEEM bottomed out around $.07 on March 16th 2017.

Here's the chart:

(Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/)

From there it took roughly 3 months to eventually top out at $2.35 on June 10th.

Then from there it mostly trended lower until it eventually bottomed out on November 7th at roughly $.86.

From there the price surged all the over $9 on January 4th, or thereabouts.

Keep in mind that exact numbers and dates of the highs may be off slightly due to me using the coinmarketcap charts, which sometimes makes it difficult to get the exact data.

Either way, the prices and dates will be very close.

What can we learn from this data?

If history were to repeat this time around, and I suspect that it may actually rhyme a little here's what we would expect to see...

There are two possible scenarios I see playing out, the first one is based on the idea that these price moves are seasonally based.

Meaning that the price will surge on/around the same time it did the last time.

If that were the case, we would see HIVE making a local high on/around June 10th.

Then we would expect to see it remain week for much of the rest of the year before bottoming in November and then topping out in January at massively high levels.

The second case is related to the halving, which took place 2 months earlier this time around...

If we apply that 2 month earlier model, we would see HIVE peaking on/around April 10th before ultimately topping out in early November of this year.

It's interesting that the first model has us making lows in November, while the second has us making all time highs in November.

It sounds like either way, something is happening in November!

My opinion is that we will see some sort of deviation of this model...

Specifically, I think we will HIVE peak at some point between April and July of this year before hopefully seeing an even higher high in roughly January of 2022.

Regarding a price projection, my guess is that it will be in the dollars somewhere, something like peaking over a dollar in June, and then going over $2 in January of 2022 sounds pretty reasonable to me.

We shall see!

What do you see playing out for HIVE this year?

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc