The euro’s 2025 uptrend could be at risk after last week’s close, but the next move hinges on a few key levels.
Watch today’s video to see how I’m trading EURUSD this week, including key levels, scenarios, and the latest on the USD Index (DXY).
EURUSD ended last week below the 1.1530 level we’ve discussed in recent post. It’s a key level that the euro broke above two weeks ago.
The EURUSD’s failure to hold above 1.1530 on Friday was exacerbated by a gap down to start the week. Although EURUSD closed that gap, sellers were ready and waiting.
As I’ve maintained for the last two weeks, EURUSD is carving a significant top. The same is true for the DXY bottom at 97.70, an area I’ve focused on for weeks.
However, EURUSD remains locked between 1.1440 support and 1.1530 resistance. A sustained break below 1.1440 will flip the level to resistance.
Keep in mind that 1.1420 could attract buyers as well, so don’t make the mistake of shorting into the 1.1420-1.1440 region.
As for the DXY, the index cleared 98.30 last week. That was the first step in carving out a significant bottom for the USD, which I’ve discussed for weeks.
The second step was for the US dollar to get above its February trend line at 99.00. It appears to have done that on Friday, with dollar bulls pushing their agenda so far this week.
One potential target for EURUSD shorts is 1.1300. There is a sell-side single print in the region, but it only becomes a viable target if 1.1440 fails on the higher time frames.