This is what I discovered today!
Hive Blockhain has its own Prediction Market and it is fully working!
Disclaimer: This is a brand new dApp, so please do not try this out if you feel in any way uncomfortable with it. Please make sure you only use apps that you trust and do your research before any financial actions
I am not sure who created it, so please enlighten me below - but this really exciting because I was already planning to get more into prediction markets as there really has been an explosion in the past few months.
(Prediction Markets is also one week of study material at the MOOC Mastering Web3, so I m looking forward for this week: https://www.unic.ac.cy/iff/education-and-training/free-courses-moocs/mastering-web3-blockchain-cryptocurrencies-nfts-and-the-metaverse/)
When you log in Hive Predict, you will be able to participate to one of the Markets or to create your own Market
https://hivepredict.app/markets/create
Step 1
I will make a test prediction that will be resolved soon, and it will be automatically resolved
I chose Price Target (Auto) and then in 1st step it autogenerates the title after you choose token, and conditions
Second steps is to choose dates
Step 3 is to set the amount of hive, the minimum amount of Participants and of course your own take on the bet.
I suggest that before you place a new market, you fully understand how it works
Parimutuel Prediction Markets
HivePredict uses a parimutuel pooling model. There is no order book. Users pick an outcome (YES or NO) and stake HIVE or HBD tokens into a shared pool. When the market resolves, the winning side splits the losing side's tokens proportionally based on each winner's individual stake.
Anti-Whale Design
Every account is subject to a per-market stake cap. A whale with 500,000 HIVE has the same maximum exposure as someone with 200 HIVE. Account eligibility requirements (minimum account age, reputation, and posting history) mitigate sybil attacks.
Creating a Market
Log in with HiveKeychain or Hivesigner
Click "Create Market" and fill out the market details
Choose your side (YES or NO) — creators must have skin in the game
Pay the creation fee
Your market goes live and accepts predictions
Placing a PredictionBrowse active markets and find one you want to predict on
Choose YES or NO
Enter your stake amount (up to the market's per-account cap)
Confirm the transaction in HiveKeychain
Your tokens are transferred to the pool and your prediction is recorded on-chain
After a short while and a confirmation through Hive Chain, the Market is created!
https://hivepredict.app/markets/e5cf1995-4dc3-4ec5-a149-37c8bd631eb7
It is still as pending, and as you see the stake cap is 20 $HIVE and I have paid 5 $HIVE as a creator.
As I am still pretty ignorant, this is just a test so feel free to place a bet - the resolution will be just in a bit less than 3 days
I am not suggesting that you start gambling, (of course not - please always make your own research before any financial actions) - but it is for me very interesting to see how finance evolves through the years and how blockchain comes to affect previously only web2 sections.
HivePredict seems very easy to use, so it could be a nice opportunity for users to participate and help our ecosystem grow. Maybe also invite users who can come for the prediction options? It will be very interesting to see how it evolves, and stay tuned for more posts by me on this subject.
If you have written about it, or read an interesting post on hive, feel free to share it below!
Check price: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hive
p.s. I wrote an article on x about prediction markets and hive (the first of a series) so feel free to support it!
https://x.com/katerinaramm1/status/2025509612770701370