As many of you know, I was at the Breathe! convention in Vegas the past week. LEO had a section in the main Hive booth and we talked to tons of awesome people about Web3, what we are building and how it all works on the Hive blockchain.
While I was there, I chatted with Aggy (Aggroed of Splinterlands). We were talking about the crypto cycles and one thing he mentioned to me is that he believed that on September 11th, we saw the end of the bear market.
What exactly happened that day? Well, we saw a quick tumble in the Bitcoin price. A lot of people got shaken out. Tons of margin got liquidated.
Shakeouts often precede large run-ups. Why is that? It can be a lot of different factors. Often times, it is some form of market manipulation. Some big stakeholders see that people are defending a certain price / have margin at that level and in order to "shake them out" they tank the price and squeeze those positions.
Whether or not that happened on September 11th, we saw a lot of liquidations and we saw the price quickly bounce off that $25k support and return to $26k. Now we are steadily climbing as we retook $27k yesterday.
Price Action
I am not technical analyst. In fact, I barely believe in TA at all. That being said, I enjoy hearing perspectives and seeing what people have to say.
I love the idea of Bitcoin's bear market being over. That would pave the way for a lot of things to recover. Especially overall market sentiment.
For projects like Splinterlands, LEO, Thorchain and others - risk-off environments are super dangerous.
How many thousands of crypto projects did not survive the crypto winter we've faced for the past 700 days?
There are countless of them. You won't even hear about them. Most faded off into the nothingness without a peep.
Obviously, others made a bigger splash as they died.
I am confident that any projects that survived this crypto winter will come out of the bear so strong.
Look to the tech they built. The fundamental progress they made. The fact that they survived is a great indicator on its own... but if they managed to evolve and find new ways to build even better, than that is a much better story.
Again, I'm not one for TA but I do like to loosely keep an eye on it. Perhaps it's like a broken compass. Sometimes it's right and sometimes its wrong. If you're wandering in the desert and have not a clue where you are headed, it can be a nice comfort to have something to guide you. No matter how roughly it may be.
Fundamentals
Fundamentally, we're seeing some great things happening. Bitcoin is being sucked away from exchanges like never before. The net outflows of CEX's is utterly ridiculous.
This can also mean a bunch of different things. The one I am curious about is if this is the result of a handful of large players - like Blackrock - who are soaking up liquid BTCs in anticipation for their ETFs to launch.
The whole ETF narrative is taking shape. We've also got the Bitcoin halvening in March 2024.
As this continues to take shape, I think we'll see the excitement build. Aren't we already seeing the early signs of the excitement building?
Gensler is losing steam in washington. ETFs are on the horizon. The halvening cycle is about to start up again after 4 years of lying in wait...
Do you own enough long-crypto exposure (BTC, ETH, HIVE, RUNE, LEO)?