Hello again, Hivians!
Last month has been a bit of a nightmare for traders but a haven perhaps for HODLers looking to add to position. Anyway, the market is looking bullish once again this month unlike last Short-tember.
As we can see from the chart of crypto total market cap (TOTAL) below, EMAs 20, 50 and 100 have realigned again on top of each other and the market has been rallying for the past 7 days. The bearish divergences that formed last August are still intact but it’s very close to breaking out. Zooming out, we can see that TOTAL is also forming a cup-and-handle which will be exciting if it can break out of it. Let’s see in the next two days if TOTAL can break out of those two.
If the crypto market cap looks still uncertain, Bitcoin on the other hand appears more certainly bullish. Last night, macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal tweeted an infamous pattern being formed by BTC. He remarked that:
No idea if BTC breaks out on first attempt or corrects again first but this is one hell of a pattern.... the on chain analysis also suggests a breakout, along with S2F. pic.twitter.com/gYTlOSaCaA
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) October 5, 2021
Anyway after charting the pattern using candlesticks a few hours ago, BTC broke out of the seemingly-diagonal reverse head and shoulders around 19:00 UTC and invalidated the bearish divergences it had formed last August. (For those unfamiliar with bearish divergences, you can check out my post that discussed divergences). Exponential moving averages EMAs 20-50-100 are also aligned on top of each other. Volume, however, is not yet very significant.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) appears bullish too. It formed a bullish divergence last September 12. EMA 10 is also now on top of EMA 20. Also, BTCUSD is also up 4.5% yesterday whereas TOTAL is only up 3.2% and ETH is only up 3.7%. This may suggest that BTC is leading this season. (Again, this is not financial advice, DYOR!)
Another possible market leader this October is Shiba Inu (SHIB) which is up 145% for the past 7 days and up 29% yesterday alone. SHIB is the second most popular meme coin next only to the infamous DOGE and it has been called recently as the DOGE-coin killer. Yesterday, SHIB was the most traded crypto on coinbase with $1.3 billion in value traded. It also re-entered the top 30 crypto by market cap.
TA-wise, SHIB broke out of a strong resistance at 0.00000953 last October 4 and it hasn’t pulled back yet from the break out. In fact, it went as high as 0.00002 yesterday registering a 110% gain from the breakout point with the RSI reaching as high as 89. This was its highest daily RSI (Oscillator Extreme, Ox) ever since it was listed on Binance. In addition to that, EMAs 20-50-100 are all aligned. However, there is still a lot of overhead resistance for the “DOGE-killer” as it is still 60% below its all-time high. Given that it registered an oscillator extreme, however, a bullish turn for every pull back or correction may be expected from DOGE (Again, this is not financial advice, DYOR!).
October appears to be a more exciting market than September. Aside from Bitcoin and SHIB, a lot of altcoins are showing bullish signals. HIVE, for instance, surprised me this morning. It was 60% up! For the past few days, it had already been showing signs of market leadership. Too bad, I set my target too low.
LUNA and AXS have both broken out of their all-time highs. Although both their uptrends appear to be weakening. I can be wrong though. Aside from that, newly-listed AGLD also appears to be the next GALA. My watchlist keeps expanding. Perhaps, this is a another bullish sign for October. Let’s see how this month goes. Hopefully, we’ll all get enough for a happy Christmas!