Hello, LBIers. Today im going to go against the grain, not too much against the grain but more of a reminder that you never sell the family cow for magic beans. Lately, I have seen a few posts on LeoFinance, in fact, there seems to be an influx of posts from users are talking about what a great time it is to buy polyCUB and how to convert LEO into polyCUB with no thought of the impact this has for the price of LEO.
Now listen, it's nice to be bullish and show support for anything LeoFinance related but advising people to convert base LEO into polyCUB is not good advice. These posts started a few days back when the price of polyCUB was 22 cents each and today the price is 14 cents meaning everyone that listened to the advice of converting LEO to polyCUB is now losing 50% of their investment. I mean this stuff really boils my blood.
How would you all feel if I were to say, "OK folks, LBI is powering down its LEO stake to convert it into polyCUB". You would think I have lost my mind but I see nothing but support in these posts and I think to myself, why is nobody saying this is a really stupid idea and bad for the price of LEO?
Yes, I understand polyCUB is bottoming out but is it really bottoming out? Do farm tokens bottom? Look at CUB (BSC) as an example, what was its bottom? I'd bet it's at whatever price it is today and I'd be right. So what do I think polyCUB's bottom is? I'd say lower than its price now. Why? because it's a farm token.
You might be thinking, but polyCUB is different, it has a hardcap of 7 million and all these super amazing tokenomics with lots of buzz words. Khal talks about it so passionately and the whole community is behind it. They are going to do this and do that and it's going to be amazing. All true but fact of the matter is the hype of the news is normally greater than the actual event and polyCUB is a farm token. Maybe I have a black and white view of the world but a farm token is a farm token. Did IDOs help the price of CUB or did it lose a bunch of investors' money? That was shilled as a game-changer but had no impact and was quickly forgotten. I think they did it once and then never again. A farm token's only value is what you can trade it for. HIVE and LEO are used for influence, ETH and BNB are used to pay gas fees on their networks, CEL and NEXO are used to earn more on saving or pay less interest on loans, DEC and SIM are used for gaming to give a few examples. What purpose/value has a farm token?
The 7 million cap means nothing if there is no buying demand for the token. As long as there is always more selling volume compared to buying volume, the price will go down. HODLing is a non-event, if more are being sold than being bought, the price will go down. If 6.5 million are locked in xPOLYcub and within 24 hours, 200k are sold while only 50k are bought, the price will go down. Im sorry, but this is the reality of farm tokens. LeoFinance's community is no different then investors in any other farm. You either on the selling side or buying side. One is profitable and the other is not. I know it sounds super bearish and negative but that's the way the game plays. Dont mix emotions with investments. Anyone that has bought polyCUB is at a loss right now, 100% of everyone is losing money. I mean it's gone straight down, there were no small moons where it jumped from 30 cents to 40 cents, it just went down. Surely there is a lesson to be learned here? If not, I feel sorry for you.
This is not only about polyCUB tokens, im talking about all farming tokens. Never buy them because they are created by a smart contract from thin air and you can get them for free by using other cryptos.
Converting your hard-earned LEO in polyCUB is not a good idea. Think of all the hours of grind you put into your content and how long you've been saving and compounding down your LEO. People who advised others to convert LEO in polyCUB a few days should be feeling pretty bad right about now as their advice has lost people money, 50% of anything they converted. All the hours of grind for what? to lose 50?% Damn, I never knew it was so expensive to show commitment.
If you feel like farming, convert your LEO to pLEO, match it off with MATIC and get into the pLEO/MATIC LP and get some polyCUB for free.
My advice would be to keep your LEO on the HIVE blockchain. Im dont know much about charts but I can see that from CUBfinance was launched on March 21, pretty much all LEO inflation has gone into liquid holdings, I assume these are wallet holdings LEO wraps of bLEO and pLEO.
We can see that around 5 million is held liquid, just under half of all LEO circulating. I ponder to myself and think, when someone wraps 10,000 LEO to bLEO/pLEO, what do they do with that bLEO/pLEO?
a - Match it off with BNB/MATIC they already own to enter the farm
b - Convert half to BNB/MATIC to enter the farm
c - Convert it completely into a different crypto
I would say that not alot of people are using option A and it would be 50/50 between B and C. This creates lots of selling pressure on LEO and overall is bad for the price of LEO as I'd guess more are being sold than bought because you would have just wrapped a bunch of LEO and have no need to buy it. Im sure other things factor into LEO's price decline but I'd say people selling wrapped versions of LEO is not helping.
I said it before, but dont sell the cow to get magic beans cause you're killing the cow and we can't milk a dead cow.
Ok, not a bearish post today but from my POV, I have watched LBIs LEO holding drop from almost $250k down to closer to $50k today and I need to understand why this has happened and predict it will continue to happen. The price of polyCUB is on its path but LEO has hope and if the focus was put back toward HIVE, it could be amazing again. Focusing on expanding to other blockchains and sucking out whatever value is left is not very bullish for LEO overall. LBI, CL and SPI all convert harvests into bLEO and unwrap them back to HIVE each week and I wish others would do the same.
As I see it, the more CUB farms that are released, the lower the LEO price will go as people wrap them up so they can and then sell half or more to get into the next farm. I could be way off on this and time will tell.
At the end of the day, it's your money and you can invest it how you like. I see alot of posts with people saying it's a great time to invest in polyCUB and I think that's bad advice so have decided to play devil's advocate. I think people are scared to write posts dissing polyCUB but what do you have to lose? LBI is down $200k, im sure your personal bags are down. A few downvotes or comments telling me im a donkey because I've not mentioned X, Y or Z will hardly bother me to be honest.
Do your own research and try to remove your emotions from investing. Seeing that crypto or investment has dropped 97% is not always a signal it's a good time to invest, it's dropped that much for a reason and if it were worth more, people would not sell it so cheaply. Be safe and only ever risk an amount of money you can lose and not care about.