And some folks are already wondering—will this be the spark for another retail crypto rally?
It’s a lot of cash, no question. By the end of March, the IRS will have sent out those refunds, and some analysts say a chunk of it won’t just sit in checking accounts. Risk assets like crypto tend to catch people’s attention when they suddenly have extra money to play with.
Wells Fargo’s team is watching this closely. They point out that new tax incentives for 2026 are adding even more fuel to the refund fire, which could quietly pull more retail investors back into the market.
The timing’s pretty wild, too. Markets are hanging out at some big technical levels right now. If even a small piece of that $150 billion finds its way into crypto, retail buyers could show up just when things get interesting.
Here’s what stands out: Wells Fargo expects about $150 billion in refunds by late March. The average refund is up, too—$2,290, according to early IRS numbers. That’s an 11% jump, giving people more spending power.
And history shows this so-called “refund effect” lines up with surges in retail-heavy crypto inflows. So, if the past is any guide, crypto could be in for a fresh wave of retail money—right on cue.
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