I have always marveled about how projected price movements from TA oftentimes capture some unspoken truth not widely shared in the market – both good and bad news.
In that vein, if you have not had a chance to read about everything happening between Tyler & Cameron Winklevoss the Gemini cofounders and Barry Silbert the CEO of the Digital Currency Group (and by extension Greyscale Bitcoin Trust), you really need to take the time to read through this and understand the ramifications of a potential Digital Currency Group insolvency – and by extension a potential insolvency of Greyscale Bitcoin Trust – would have on the entire crypto ecosystem.
https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2023/01/04/gemini-winklevoss-ultimatum-barry-silbert/
With that, Let’s get to the TA. (My methodology is Point & Figure/Wyckoff.)
Looking at the 1D chart ($200 box size with a 3-box reversal), the formation moved into a normal Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation pattern after breaking a major line of support at the $17,600 price point. As the formation moved from Phase A into Phase B, the PA of the formation experienced a Change of Character (transforming midway in Phase B from a typical Wyckoff Accumulation pattern into a Wyckoff Distribution pattern). It formed a Last Point of Supply (an exit rally) which took the PA to the $18,200 region and subsequently printed a Sign of Weakness as the PA moved into a Wyckoff Redistribution pattern.
If we look at the projected target price of this Wyckoff Redistribution using the horizontal method, the projected price for this Wyckoff Redistribution phase would be ((9 columns x 200 box size x 3 box reversal) * 2/3) - $17,000 = $14,600 region based upon the existing cause in the formation.
One thing to be acutely aware of in a Wyckoff Redistribution cycle is these cycles generally have three waves – each with diminished intensity as a rule of thumb. It is entirely possible after BTC settles into a new Trade Range in the $14,600 region, the formation will move through a normal Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation right before experiencing a Change of Character and transforming into a third Wyckoff Redistribution only to take the PA to a lower Trade Range.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.