What Market Phase are we entering into has been the introductory question for our last appointments. Are we going to listen to the Bulls or the Bears?
Are we going to see a Bull Market or a Bear Market?
Welcome to Surfing the Market, we are already at our 65th appointment and I hope that with these easy tech analysis we have helped you in some forms, even just to evaluate different market perspectives.
Let’s start from our usual weekly perspective
Source:Tradingview - Weekly Chart
Last week showed a bearish candle and this one is acting like an amplified Doji so far. Doji are usually a signal for inversion meaning that if the recent weeks trend showed bearish attitude, we can statistically say that an upwards movement may happen soon. Anyway, we are in August: less volumes and also less investment institutes operating at full regimens as the volume are lower and they can get less liquidity to be executed.
What do I expect from a daily perspective?
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
In the last days, the price bounced geometrically onto the red support with a big spike: two implications can be seen: good liquidity is still at the red level and seeing the fast recovery, some manipulation may be occurring due to low levels. So, be care-ful(l) and do not fall into traps.
Source: Tradingview - Strength Dollar Index
DXY continues its bounce up, creating weakness in the commodities markets (and in Bitcoin as well), making potential bullish movements more difficult to happen.
MA50 is in the area of the price action making it a statistically relevant area for the price that can be attracted longer in this area BUT making the next rejection/ejection of the price from this area even stronger.
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Ichimoku Clouds have a width quite large that may create uncertainty on the next moves as the cloud is usually statistically uncertain while it usually attracts toward the bottom or the top of the cloud itself. Anyway, seeing the low volumes, clouds in this exact moment do not give strong signals.
Source:Tradingview - Daily Chart
And now, what from a Volume perspective?
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Volumes are decreasing, as we enter into August and the price can become more “manipulable”.
As I mentioned two weeks ago, we assisted to a long squeeze above 31000$, a fast bounce-up of the DXY and here is the slightly bearish moment for Bitcoin.
What to observe particularly?
We are still on the strong support, like mentioned the last week. DXY may play a relevant role for the price to bounce back up but this week especially, I would stay much cautious.
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None of what I write can represent a financial advice in any form. So Do your own research before taking any kind of action.