What Market Phase are we entering into has been the introductory question for our last appointments. Are we going to listen to the Bulls or the Bears? Are we going to see a Bull Market or a Bear Market?
Welcome to Surfing the Market, we are already at our 39th appointment and I hope that with these easy tech analysis we have helped you in some forms, even just to evaluate different market perspectives.
Third appointment after the Holidays, and Bitcoin price is consolidating.
Let’s start from our usual weekly perspective
Price is consolidating in the 23k$ area. This is actually a good news, because before seeing further growth, price consolidation is important.
Then, so far, so good.
What do I expect from a daily perspective?
Last week the price had reached and far surpassed blue resistance, in this week it touched several times the yellow 3-day resistance that I introduced in last week's analysis.
The price remains in compression, and we are seeing real price consolidation: although the FED has touched interest rates, we have not seen a sudden drop.
I am saying in the coming days, because there have been a lot of volumes in the last weeks entering into the market so either they will stay in or they will go out trying to take some profit.
Dollar Strength Index is still ranging in the 102 area like in last week snapshot. When DXY is stable, some calm is seen in these markets. Anyway, dollar is losing strength towards Euro and Yen, meaning that potentially, Bitcoin may face another bullish movement. Not necessarily just for its merit, but eventually for Dollar’s demerits.
50MA and 200MA are still below the price action. The 50MA (red) is raising, and the Golden Cross may happen in a couple of weeks if the bullish trend is confirmed. The Golden-Cross is getting closer, but for it to occur we need the trend to remain bullish: given how the market has absorbed the news of the rate hike, it may well be possible within a few weeks.
Ichimoku Clouds gaining width, meaning that in the area of 24k$ there is a statistical strong support since the wider the Cloud, the stronger the price-level.
Stochastic is re-entering below the overbought band, and thus the trend may lose intensity and originate a physiological retrace and then confirm bullish.
Stochastic indicates a possibility of retrace, confirming, however, a bullish
And now, what from a Volume perspective?
Volumes have not increased significantly but have held steady this week, which means that this price consolidation is already absorbing some selling pressure. This is another potential signal that gives stability or possibly even a continuation.
What to observe particularly?
I have introduced here, on a 3D timeframe basis the yellow and the red line. The yellow line in the 24k$ area is my next target, that if it will be broken with volumes, may bring us to the following target, the Red one, that will be statistically far stronger than the yellow one.
They are both levels where the price had some resistance/support in the last months.
I am still quietly bullish, even if some temporary set-back of the price may be seen. I am thankful since I bought some fractions of BTC at 16500$ area.
We are also keeping up the development of our automatic indicator. Since the last week we gathered some more results and I can tell you that I am quite satisfied!
In the screen below you can see a short trade, where I originated a Crypto-Gain of about 1%.
By Crypto-Gain I mean an increase in the final amount of the Crypto portfolio. This is for short trades, in long trades, on the contrary, we will have an increase in the Fiat portfolio, which we will therefore call Fiat-Gain.
Anyway, keep your eyes open, since Thursday are going to be released the data about USA GDP. That news will be very likely to influence the market.
Let me know what you think about this new weekly appointment, and what indicators you would like to be taken into consideration more (or even explained).
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None of what I write can represent a financial advice in any form. So Do your own research before taking any kind of action.