I have been watching the market all day, and the situation with Cardano has been on my mind repeatedly. I am standing at a time when the gap between technological advancement and real liquidity is palpable. Seeing the wrong trade by a big investor, it seemed that it was not right to think that only technological advancements would suffice. More than six million dollars disappearing into thin air on a USDA switch is not a common mistake; it is a message for the entire ecosystem.
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I was looking at the charts myself, looking at the on-chain data - I saw that the liquidity shortage is very deep. There is no reserve to handle the large volume of moving from ADA to stablecoins. The first thing that comes to my mind is that we may have been looking at the DeFi part of Cardano a little too optimistically. No matter how great the technological potential is, when there is no real capital, a system collapses under its own weight.
Seeing the way the discussion started in the community after this incident, I also understood that people are not only looking at the problem, but also looking for solutions. Especially the renewed hype about Hydra—I’ve watched the video demo a few times—speed, high-frequency action, low latency…all are fine. But one thing is becoming clear again and again in my own analysis: scaling solutions are not enough; can they actually solve the liquidity problem of DeFi?
Because technology can fix congestion, but who can fix the liquidity shortage? No ecosystem grows by repeatedly circulating recycled capital inside—new funds from outside bring real change. And I can clearly see that Cardano is still lagging in this area.
I also looked at the technical charts for a long time today. There is divergence in the RSI, and a buy signal has also emerged on the TD Sequential—but I personally think that how sustainable this recovery will be depends entirely on investor confidence. Even if the market is oversold, if the psychology is damaged, the signal and momentum cannot pull it together.
Another thing I noticed—Hoskinson’s statement. On the one hand, he made light of the incident, and on the other hand, he taught a big lesson: the technology is there, but scaling will only happen when deep capital flows come. I think he is right. No matter how many predictions are made about 2026, the reality of the market is always Liquidity-driven.
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This seems to be a turning point for Cardano. I never doubt the technology—in fact, in my own analysis, I always see its foundation as strong. But the future depends—how quickly, how much capital enters this ecosystem.
After analysing charts, data, news—all day long, my own conclusion was very clear: Cardano is now in the middle of a test. It is time to learn from mistakes, and if that learning is not used to bring real liquidity to DeFi, technological progress alone will not do anything.