Hello friends, how are you? I hope you're all doing well and staying healthy amidst all the hustle and bustle. Today I had some time to reflect on my trading strategy and decided to analyze the current state of the cryptocurrency market. While looking at the chart, I suddenly noticed a coin: the well-known Pi Coin (pi).
The article I read and analyzed the market data basically highlighted the recent and enormous price increase of Pi Coin and the reasons behind it. However, I noticed that while some technical issues were mentioned quite clearly, an important aspect of reality (what we call fundamental reality) was completely ignored. So, I opened the chart, compared the data, and will present the matter simply from my perspective.
Let's analyze how we, as ordinary traders, can view the situation.
What is the reason for this sudden surge in Pi Coin?
You might remember that many of us used to mine Pi on our phones. Surprisingly, the price of this coin has increased by almost 75% in the last 30 days. It has risen by 24% in the last week alone. What is behind this sudden surge?
My analysis points to two main reasons. First, March 14th is "Pi Day," a major celebration for the Pi network community. Second, today (March 12th) is the deadline for updating its protocol. Additionally, there is significant interest in its listing on the Kraken exchange platform. The combination of this event and the resulting buzz is essentially the reason the price is soaring.
What does the chart say? (My technical perspective)
Analyzing its chart on TradingView, I saw a rather attractive "flag and flag" pattern forming. In short, the market is preparing to take a break before moving upward again.
However, in my opinion, the biggest obstacle or resistance level at the moment is $0.245. Breaking through this zone is now the biggest challenge for buyers. I checked a few more indicators:
Smart Investing and Volume: I saw that the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator is quite positive. This means that large investors (whom we call smart investors) are investing in the market.
Moving Average Signal: The 20-day moving average (EMA) is crossing the 100-day line and rising, which is a strong bullish signal (bullish market) for average traders.
But there's a catch! Although everything seems so positive, I felt a twinge. Looking at the "Bullish-Bearish Power" indicator, I realized that although the price is rising, the speed of buying momentum has decreased slightly compared to before. In other words, buyers are getting a little nervous. It's possible that the market won't go straight up and will shift or rest at this point.
What the Article Omitted (The Fact Check)
I've seen many news outlets analyze Pi Coin like any other common cryptocurrency. But the most serious thing they forget to mention is that: Most of the Pi currently being traded on exchanges is "IOU" (I owe you).
Pi's open mainnet isn't yet fully active or connected to external exchanges. This means you can't directly sell Pi mined on your phone at this price. Therefore, this 75% increase is more of a speculative exaggeration or an emotional investment created around "Pi Day" and upgrade events than a solid benefit for the project. As savvy traders, we must keep this in mind.
So, what could happen now? (Support and Target)
If I were trading now, I would focus on these levels:
- Upside (Bullish Target): If buyers manage to break above the $0.245 barrier, my first target would be $0.261, followed by $0.279. And if the hype is stronger, the price could reach $0.332 based on the Fibonacci extension. Downside (Support/Stop-Loss): It's foolish to trade without a backup plan. If the price drops, it will find support at the $0.227 and $0.215 levels. But if, for any reason, the price falls below $0.195, then you'll know that this uptrend ends there, and the market will enter a significant correction.
Finally, my opinion:
Pi Coin is currently trending and has created a good opportunity for day traders. However, since the entire movement depends on events, there is also a risk of a significant price drop or a price crash once the initial euphoria subsides. Those who trade should be sure to use strict stop-loss orders and carefully manage their risk.
What do you think? Will it really cause a sensation on the main network, or is it just hype? Feel free to comment! Stay safe and trade carefully.