The coolest aspect of long-term technical analysis is going back to old thesis to see how things played out. At least for me, TA is a mere leisure interest, something I do for fun more than as a trading guide. So, whenever I'm right or wrong doesn't really matter; it's just the satisfaction of sometimes hitting the bull's eye that feels awesome.
Today I revised a bullish thesis from 20/11/22. It's my last post on this account actually -- see here.
The thesis
"Bitcoins is forming a textbook falling wedge on the weekly chart. A falling wedge pattern is seen as a bullish signal[...]"
"Combined with a RSI divergence it feels like we might see a bullish reaction after a week of mega dump[...]"
Absolutely fantastic to see where we landed more than a year later. The thesis played out and Bitcoin surged after a few weeks of little sideways movement. The breakout of such patterns is always intense and tents to put the price back to the top of the wedge (@ ~60k USD).
Bitcoin's multi-year falling wedge
Bitcoin's price has since formed a rectangle (March 23 - October 23) that's formed and continued. A rectangle occurs when the price is moving between horizontal support and resistance levels (seen in orange).
What's coming next is still unknown for me. I don't see anything relevant on the weekly chart to make any previsions (not huge formation in sight).
Bitcoin is, however, approaching another halving this year, which might kick start another phase of price discovery. Being Bitcoin a digital commodity -- that's pegged to a cost of production -- we could use that as guide.
What's the current price of production of 1 Bitcoin for the miners?
What will the price of production be after the next halving?
Those are questions to always keep in mind.
Regardless of where the price goes, I still see Bitcoin as the ultimate collateral and the best asset capable of safeguarding our wealth in emergencies or for the future.
Just in case, buy and hold xDD