In my previous article, I discussed whether the rise in Hive will continue. I mentioned some threshold values in the article. As of today, these thresholds have been exceeded. But does the macroeconomic situation support Hive's price rise? How might the Hive price move in the coming days?
Hive's 200-day simple and exponential average is at 33 cents. Purchases accelerated after the 33-cent level was passed because the 200-day average is an essential indicator for determining the medium-term trend.
Two weeks ago, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) value exceeded 50. The weekly RSI is an important indicator because it shows the momentum in the market over the last 14 weeks. There is a saying in Turkish: "Eating yogurt by blowing on it because your mouth was burned from milk." Even though the weekly RSI had crossed 50, I needed to figure out the uptrend because, in Hive's short history, the weekly RSI had risen to 53 and retreated four times. The weekly RSI is currently at 58. That means that Hive has entered the medium-term uptrend.
Two days ago, the Hive price had not yet passed the 36-37 cent resistance. We saw a close above this level last night. Today, the price continues to hover above 37 cents. Now, we have a weak and a strong resistance in front of us. On July 15 and July 31, the price of Hive rose to 40 cents and then retreated. Plain numbers affect investor psychology. It creates price awareness among investors and causes selling if the momentum is insufficient. However, 40 cents is a weak resistance as there has not been a lot of volume at this level in the past. The 50-cent resistance is more robust. In the first half of the year, Hive price tested 50 cents 5 times but retreated each time. Once the 50-cent resistance is permanently overcome, we can declare that Hive has entered the bull market.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Important economic data around the world was announced yesterday. Consumer inflation in Germany was 3.8%, decreasing by 0.7 compared to the previous month. Since the European Central Bank (ECB) started to increase interest rates later than the FED, the decline in inflation in Europe needs to catch up. European economies have resisted interest rate hikes better than anticipated, but economic weakening has become evident recently. That means the ECB must be more careful about interest rate increases.
China's October inflation data was announced yesterday. Annual consumer inflation is -0.2%. Monthly inflation in October is also negative. And more importantly, producer price inflation, which gives clues about the future, was announced as -2.2%. The Chinese economy is in a deflationary period, so it is not difficult to predict that monetary expansion will continue.
We are waiting for October consumer inflation to be announced in the USA. Futures pricing shows the probability of the FED raising interest rates at the next meeting is below 10%. American stock markets have risen for two weeks due to falling bond yields. Technical indicators show that the direction of US stock markets is upward. The FED is disturbed by this festive atmosphere in the market because rising asset prices make it difficult to control inflation. On the other hand, it would be a big surprise if the FED increased interest rates further.
TL;DR
We are facing an upward trend in the crypto market similar to the one we experienced in January. The unique aspect of the movement in the last two weeks is that Bitcoin and altcoins rose together. Bitcoin dominance has decreased by two points in the previous two weeks. Of course, the economic conjuncture is also different; the rise in January occurred in an environment of rising interest rates. However, we expect interest rates to decline next year.
The medium-term trend price expectation for Hive is upward. The price crossed the 200-day average, and the weekly RSI rose to 58. Hive's short history indicates that when RSI surpasses 58, a bull market begins. The image below shows the Hive price chart at the top and the weekly RSI value at the bottom.
As seen in the chart, Hive's price made 3-4x both times when the weekly RSI increased to 58.
It is still being determined whether Hive will continue to rise in the coming days. On the other hand, the medium-term trend is upward, indicating that the possibility of an increase is high. We may have to overcome a rough path to ascend. We first must pass the 40-cent resistance and then the 50-cent level in the Hive price. Forty cents might be easier to beat. Fifty cents will require higher momentum.
It is too early to declare the start of the altcoin season. If the Bitcoin dominance remains stable for a few more weeks, a rush on altcoins may begin.
Thank you for reading.
Cover Image Source: Midjourney App