Splinterlands Airdrop Math - What's the Expected Value of Your Drop?

So there were some questions in the discord today when I dropped this:

Airdrop sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jjZn01cgr0ziLgEw2bjDtrGonVgpzHsTVNkXDWhpw_k/edit#gid=0

Web alternative by Hive account@tehox: https://splintercards.com/tool-sps-airdrop.html

So how is expected value calculated?

We know that 400,000,000 SPS will be airdropped to players based on their assets each day for 1 year. That works out to 1,095,890 SPS per day.

We know that the private sale price of SPS is 0.018 USD.

We have an estimate that the total ecosystem airdrop points will be somewhere are 5.5-6 billion points.

So to calculate your expected value you total your airdrop points, divide them by 6 billion or so, multiply by 400,000,000, and multiply that by $0.018.

EV over the next year = YourPoints / 6,000,000,000 x 400,000,000 x 0.018

I updated my spreadsheet to include a range of values like so:

Now it is important to remember a couple things:

1, the total number of airdrop points will change. New DEC will be printed. Chaos Legion will add collection power. People will buy skins (even I bought a set of skins!).

2, the price of SPS will change once there's a market for it. Maybe it'll go down, maybe it'll go up. Hopefully it'll be desirable and go up.

But for now, this is the best estimate we have looking forward to the next year of airdrops.