On Tuesday, March 24, trading in the EUR/USD pair ended in decline. The euro fell 0.70% to 1.1848. The day turned out to be unusual. The dollar rose in price across the market amid a sharp drop in US Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year bonds fell to 1.59% per annum, including trading in Asia. The American debt market provided support for the dollar for several weeks, and when the yield began to decline, investors at that moment switched to other events.
The euro fell to 1.1834. Sales have sparked a third wave of COVID-19 coronavirus in Europe. Germany has extended the lockdown until April 18. France imposed a new four-week quarantine in Paris and several other regions last Friday.
The euro began to decline since the opening of the Asian session, the decline accelerated in European trading. The flight from risky assets was provoked by sanctions against China and the decision of the New Zealand government to curb speculation in the housing market. By the end of the day, the New Zealander plunged 2.18% against the US dollar. He dragged a friend of the attorney with him and for a couple provoked traders to close long major currencies, not paying attention to the rise in the price of long-term US bonds.
Scheduled statistics (GMT +3):
- 15:30, the US will report a change in the volume of orders for durable goods for February.
- 16:45, the US will present an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for March.
- 17:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Paeull will deliver a speech in the United States.
- 17:30, the Ministry of Energy will publish a report on oil reserves in the United States.
- 18:00, the eurozone will release the March consumer confidence indicator.
- 18:40, in the euro area, the head of the ECB Lagarde will deliver a speech.
Current situation:
At the time of this writing, the euro is worth 1.1824. The 10-year bond yields 1.61%. The New Zealander and Aussie remain under pressure, occupying the first two places in decline. They fell 0.23%. When these currencies depreciate the most against the US dollar, investors go into defensive assets.
The euro is hovering over 90 degrees. It almost coincides with the horizontal level from the 1.1836 low (March 9, 2020). Due to the third wave and slow vaccination, the situation in Europe remains tense. Many industrial stores are on the verge of bankruptcy. Investors are starting to bet on the US on the economic recovery.
Looking at the daily chart, buyers missed their chance. The scales are tilted on the side of the sellers. The external background is also on their side. The closest level for the decline is 1.1770. If the fall accelerates on the background of triggering stops, sellers will aim at 1.1640. To stop the fall, positive news on vaccines is needed.