Asymmetric opportunities do not appear often but when they do you need to take advantage.
The company is Burford Capital (BUR:NYSE). This is the largest litigation finance firm in the world.
Years ago Argentina nationalized a major oil company YPF without paying shareholders fair value.
Burford was hired by investors to sue Argentina for fair compensation. Burford makes their money by winning settlements that others do not want to take the risk of financing. In this case Burford spent $70 million dollars for a 38% stake of any amounts won in court. Judge Loretta Preska of the Southern District of New York ruled in favor of Burford and awarded damages of $16.1 billion to Burford's investor clients. If full payment is made Burford will earn $6 billion which is an 86x return over the cost of the lawsuit.
Burford is currently worth about $3 billion so a full payment would double the value of its current share price.
Since Argentina is not cooperating, Judge Preska awarded Burford clients a 51% stake in YPF of which Burford share would equal $2.4 billion dollars serving as a partial payment. Argentina is still on the hook for the full $16.1 billion and they have two weeks to make the payment.
The legal power that Burford has in the matter could lead to a settlement that would still provide Burford Capital at least $3 billion gain.
Either way the share price has substantial upside with little downside risk.