A powerful technical signal has once again drawn attention to Bitcoin, reviving the hopes of a major rally. The week-relative-strength index (RSI) for Bitcoin showed its ninth bullish crossover of the present cycle - a pattern that in the past has been followed by strong increases of up to 35%. Thus, if history repeats itself, BTC might jump to $155,000 in a few weeks, while some experts might go even further in their predictions.
The RSI Signal: A Proven Catalyst
One of the main reasons for a positive outlook on Bitcoin was the crypto investor Jelle’s statement concerning the importance of the stochastic RSI being the crossover mentioned in the chart. The trader puts emphasis on the fact that Bitcoin gained from every one of the eight previous occurrences of such signals in the current cycle, and the sum of those profits made the shortest-term halving period of this Bitcoin cycle a great election choice. "On average, these crossovers have triggered a 35% rally," said Jelle, giving reference to BTC's breakout out of its current consolidation yield above $115K
Timothy Peterson, whose vision is one of a solar ascent, is another factor that is making bulls look more bullish. From the point of view of his model, which is cycle based, the path of BTC could lead to its hitting $200,000 in no more than 170 days. “Technological doubt-based on my part,-“ technically the least expected, refers to repeating cycle patterns, which, in contrast, become the best of all roadmaps for the trader’s decision-making,” Peterson said while giving this prediction better than even odds as one of his most probable outcomes.
Liquidity Clusters and Resistance Zones
Though there is a silver lining, the dark cloud is still there. Analyst Skew observed that those who have taken short positions provide the most liquidity and are concentrated close to the area of $116,000, which he calls "consensus trade" before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. This liquidity wall could work as a temporary ceiling, with immediate resistance sitting between $117,000 and $118,000.
Likewise, Skew proposed that selling and supply activities during price rallies might be indicative of a market with a bearish tone. “In this case, market maker manipulation may be behind the positioning rather than genuine market play,” he noted, advising traders to stay alert.
On-Chain Indicators: Mixed Signals
While the RSI signal is bullish, on-chain metrics show a more detailed picture. CryptoQuant data shows that 8 out of 10 bull market indicators have changed to the bearish side, which means that the momentum is cooling. This discrepancy between technical and fundamental indicators is dividing traders as to the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin.
There are some who think that the macroeconomic situation is still more favorable to BTC and the reason for this is the expectation of up to three interest rate cuts later this year. On the other hand, there are those who say the market's recent behavior is a sign of exhaustion and the need for consolidation before a sustained rally.
The FOMC Factor: Macro Meets Crypto
The FOMC interest rate decision is the next event that will definitely affect the FOMC's worries about the future of the Federal Reserve and far-off impacts on the stock market and crypto. If the Fed takes a dovish position, fresh liquidity may be pumped into the risk assets' pool, and the crypto market will be one of the beneficiaries. On the other hand, a hawkish tone might cause a reduction of the enthusiasm to occur and, as a result, a pullback will be triggered.
The situation in the financial sphere forms some kind of a puzzle besides that. The U.S. dollar index is at a 15-year support level, while stocks and commodities are flourishing. The S&P 500 has gone up by 12% this year, and gold has just reached $3,700 — its all-time high.
Subtopics to Watch
Altcoin Correlation: Practically all other coins, especially Ethereum, are going to follow Bitcoin, if the latter gets to escalate as forecasted.
Institutional Inflows: Would hedge funds' managers be so bold to purchase BTC, knowing the macro situation to be so unclear and volatile?
Regulatory Watch: Will the crypto legislation in U.S. and EU influence the market by changing people's opinions about it?
Mining Economics: When BTC prices go up, miners naturally make more money and the rise in hash rate would be accentuated, wouldn't it?
Outlook: Bullish, But Not Blind
The RSI signal is very often correct, however, traders' best option would be to play the optimistic game with a pinch of caution. Technical indicators, macroeconomic changes, and liquidity flow dynamics all together make this Bitcoin's crossroads.
BTC's hitting $155,000, or Peterson's prediction of a $200,000 takeoff, whichever it will be, is not only based on charts but also on how Fed's next action and broader economic trends are interpreted by the market.
The crypto universe is holding its breath for now.