Geopolitical carnage
Tensions are rising as the US targets Iran, but Iran stands increasingly isolated. Aside from Russia, few countries are likely to offer support, given Iran’s history of strained alliances.
Key Background:
2014: Iran betrayed a major telecom deal with the US.
2021: After a $400B cooperation agreement with the US, Iran pivoted toward India, even handing Chabahar Port operating rights to India, a direct challenge to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port.
2023: Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia improved, but Iran warned that any attack could trigger missile strikes across the Gulf.
Even during regional conflicts, Iran and India have aligned, leading to a shift in investments:
Declining inflows into Iran
Increasing inflows into Saudi Arabia
Iran’s remaining leverage lies in its missile arsenal, but this cannot fix deeper economic problems: 100x currency devaluation over the last decade. Wealthy elites secretly moving assets to the West. For traders and investors, this escalating geopolitical risk may impact oil, FX, and regional markets, with potential knock-on effects for global liquidity, safe-haven assets, and crypto sentiment.
Sincerely,
Pele23