Satellite data suggest, unlike Russian official statistics, that Russian industrial output has declined since the beginning of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to data collected by the European Space Agency satellite Sentinel 5P that measures nitrogen oxide, ozone, formaldehyde, and methane, changes in pollution and thus industrial output can be measured. There exist public data on the correlation between pollution and reported industrial output in the past.
The sanctions are working. Auto and defense industries declined by 16 and 10 percent, respectively. Output from thermal power plants and traffic increased slightly in 2022.
When it comes to sanctions in general, while the Russian banking sector hasn't been affected by sanctions too much, the price cap on oil transported via sea is working well. At $60 it is high enough to ensure that Russia is incentivized to keep producing but low enough to reduce profit to just a few dollars per barrel, thus benefiting all importers, including other BRICS nations. The price gap is enforced by Western governments through insurance and shipping companies based in the West. Although some BRICS companies have rejected the sanctions, the net effect is lowered market price from which they benefit. India, for instance, is buying Russian oil at below $60 per barrel.
Production cuts introduced by OPEC have had much less effect than expected because of increased Russian production to help narrow the budget deficit.
The economic effect on Russia has been negative since the introduction of the price cap in December 2022. Russia's government budget has had deficit of about $43 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2023.
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