There have been some alarming reports about the drastic drop in trade between the EU and the UK recently
For example, according to this Observer Report exports from the UK to Europe have been reduced by 68% this January compared to last year.
And given that UK exports to the EU represent just over 40% of our exports, that sounds like the kind of reduction that could collapse the economy!
However, if you look at how this data was collected you’ll find they are a bit misleading:
The figures are based on a Survey of International Road Hauliers Association. The research company phoned members (road haulage companies who employ lorry drivers) and asked them:
- ‘How many trips had their company made carrying goods in the third week in January of 2021’
They then asked them:
- ‘How many loaded trips did you make in a typical week in 2020’.
Now, straight away we’re not comparing like for like here - ‘last week’ this year, with the average week of 2020 - it’s not the same!
And then there’s the fact that fewer than 50% of companies opted to respond, so we have a problem of there being a self selecting sample. It’s more likely that companies that have been negatively affected would take part because they wanted to register their concerns.
AND THEN there’s the fact that a lot exporting companies are not based in the UK - these may have had a different experience.
The Government has responded with its own figures - NB Official Trade figures (which are independently verified) aren’t out until March and the government isn’t supposed to make comments like this until it has verified data, but nonetheless according to this More or Less podcast the UK government recently reported that ‘Trade Flows across the channel are down 18% since Brexit’
However, we don’t know what kind of ‘flows’ they are talking about or if they’re counting empty lorries, which the above Survey doesn’t.
The government has also suggested that an 18% reduction is ‘close to normal’.
Hmm, imagine if your boss told you your wages were going to be cut by 18% - ‘normal?
Either way there is a correlation between Brexit and Covid and a reduction in Trade between the EU and UK - however, we will just have to wait for more transparent data, to be released in March, to know how large the effect is.
Even then that data won’t be able to tell us how long this reduction in trade will last, or whether Brexit or Covid is the cause!
All in all this is another case of newspapers playing politics with dodgy data!